Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "Last week gave us something..."

Finland

Last week gave us something strange to look at. $GOOG (Alphabet) reported record numbers and the stock fell more than 4%. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) reported a week later and jumped 10%. Both companies said roughly the same thing: demand for AI cloud is enormous, and we are raising how much we spend to meet it. Here is what sits underneath both reports. Four companies now hold more than $2.3 trillion in contracted cloud revenue. Money customers have already signed for and not yet received. A year ago that number was $0.81 trillion. $MSFT (Microsoft) order book went from $368B to $678B. $AMZN went from $364B to $496B in one single quarter. $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) from $138B to $638B $GOOG now has backlog of $514B That is not a bubble narrative. Those are signatures on contracts. But there are two things the headline number hides, and they explain the price action better than the headline does. The first is timing. Contracted does not mean collected. Microsoft expects around 30% of its backlog to turn into revenue within twelve months. Google, just over half within twenty four. The data centers, though, get paid now. Alphabet’s free cash flow went negative this quarter. Oracle burned $23.7 billion across its fiscal year. So the market is looking at a company that promises a lot of money in 2028 and spends a lot of money in 2026. The second is concentration. Microsoft’s finance chief mentioned that the backlog grew 25% without OpenAI, against 84% with it. Roughly one third of that order book belongs to a single client. Amazon’s jump this quarter leans heavily on one Anthropic contract worth over $100 billion. Oracle’s dependence is larger still. So the record is real and the risk is real at the same time. Both things can be true. I have not sold anything. My position sits one layer below the clouds - chips, memory, power generation, grid, cooling. That layer gets paid regardless of which cloud provider wins the contract, and regardless of which AI lab ends up paying the bill. Somebody has to build the capacity before anyone can argue about who profits from it. I have been wrong before by reacting to a red day instead of reading the report behind it. That habit cost me more than any single position ever did. What matters more to you - a company’s order book, or the cash it actually collects this year? ——— $SPX500 ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.