Pietari Laurila
United Arab Emirates
2m
ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 13 ᴏᴄᴛᴏʙᴇʀ 2025 After a year of market volatility, the global economy now looks more likely to accelerate than to stall. The United States appears to be entering another upswing. Fiscal stimulus is ramping up through new tax cuts and rebates, the Federal Reserve has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, and reduced uncertainty should unlock a wave of deferred spending and investment. The global backdrop is also turning brighter. Germany has launched a major infrastructure and defence investment push, while China is increasing fiscal support to meet its 5% growth target. The OECD’s leading indicator remains in positive territory. It began rising in late 2022 and typically trends higher for about 18 months before rolling over. This time, the expansion has proven unusually durable, extending through 2023, 2024 and into 2025, reflected in buoyant global equity markets. The key risk is that this recovery unfolds amid constrained supply — a legacy of tariffs, tighter immigration, and erratic policy — which could bring inflation back into focus in 2026. In that scenario, equities should continue to benefit in the near term, while bonds could face renewed pressure. I expect global stock markets to rally into 2026, supported by the economic re-acceleration and still ample liquidity. At the same time, I expect government bonds to sell off. US 10-year yields could return toward 5% — roughly 3% inflation plus a 2% real rate — while German 10-year yields are likely to climb above 3%. The S&P 500 could advance toward 7,000, with non-US markets likely outperforming as global growth broadens. Overall, the world economy appears to be entering a new expansionary phase after years of policy uncertainty. Growth in 2026 should strengthen across the major regions — led by the US and reinforced by Europe and Asia — though higher inflation is likely to eventually end the expansion, perhaps around mid-2026. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +28.9% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 None 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.
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