Michael Jensen @GenesisGains: "Hello, everyone Before we dive..."

Denmark

Hello, everyone Before we dive into today’s market update, I want to briefly follow up on last night’s copier note regarding the portfolio repositioning — because today delivered a textbook example of exactly why that strategy matters. Today $ADYEN.NV (Adyen NV) dropped 20% after earnings. Not because the numbers were disastrous — they weren’t. Growth was communicated, and results were “okay.” But in this market, “okay” is not enough when expectations are elevated. The projected growth simply didn’t impress, and the stock was punished accordingly. Just like we have seen with a large number of other stocks. Now here’s where positioning makes the difference. At the end of January, Adyen declined alongside the broader market. Before that drop, we had roughly 2% exposure. As the stock corrected significantly, I gradually increased the position — especially near the lows before the recovery — bringing exposure to around 5%. Adyen then became one of the strongest rebounders in the portfolio. We captured a very solid part of that recovery. However, after the rally I reassessed the risk. Adyen belongs to the software space, and at 5% weight after a strong rebound, the exposure was simply too high relative to sector risk. So I reduced it to 2.5%, which also meant closing several red positions in the process. Had I not done that, today’s 20% drop would have hit us with nearly double the exposure. Instead, we absorbed the move in a controlled way — and after the sell-off, I added again, bringing exposure to around 3.2% at significantly lower levels. This is precisely why active risk management matters. It’s not about avoiding red positions. That’s impossible. It’s about ensuring that profits outweigh losses over time. That is how portfolios compound. Now let´s get back to the market update : The increasing interaction between politics and markets was on display again. Political tensions in Washington are rising, and markets are pricing a high probability of a government shutdown this weekend. At the same time, structural issues remain in focus: • Annual U.S. deficits near $1.9T, projected to rise further • Tariff impact estimated at roughly $360 per household annually • Rising credit card delinquencies signaling consumer strain Whether one agrees with every estimate or not, markets care about growth — and growth expectations are being questioned at the margin. Layer onto that the ongoing AI disruption. We are seeing aggressive repricing across sectors: • Financial advisory names down sharply • Insurance brokers hit hard • Software selling as if entire business models disappear tomorrow • Commercial real estate services under pressure This has created extreme stock dispersion — individual equities moving violently while indices appear relatively calm. Technical Picture The $NSDQ100 is stagnating around 25,200–25,300. The $SPX500 is hovering near 6,950. On both indices, moving averages are clustering tightly. That usually signals compression before expansion — markets waiting for a trigger. Important observations: • Both indices remain under visible pressure • Upside attempts are repeatedly rejected • Breakouts fail to hold • Momentum is not expanding This is not panic. But it is hesitation. The Nasdaq has effectively moved sideways for quite some time. The S&P shows similar compression. When moving averages cluster in this manner, the next move is rarely small. For now, rallies lack conviction. Value continues to outperform Tech. Energy and defensive names show relative strength. Semiconductors and software remain fragile. Momentum has rotated — and that shift is not subtle. Clear & Simple Recap : Political uncertainty is rising again. U.S. deficits remain large. Consumers are under pressure. AI disruption is causing strong moves in individual stocks. Nasdaq (~25,200) and S&P (~6,950) are stuck — and upside attempts are being rejected. The market is not crashing. But it is clearly waiting. And when markets compress like this, the next move tends to be bigger. That’s why position sizing, exposure control, and disciplined adjustments — like the Adyen example above — remain essential. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.)

5 Mentioned

ADYEN.NV

Adyen NV

NSDQ100

SPX500

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

TSLA

Tesla Motors, Inc.

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