Davide Semilia @DavideSemilia: "3.8% CPI Just Killed Your..."

Italy

3.8% CPI Just Killed Your Rate Cut Dreams Forget June. Forget September. Maybe forget 2026 entirely. This morning's CPI print came in at 3.8% year-over-year — the hottest inflation reading since 2023. And the culprits aren't abstract economic forces. They're gasoline and groceries. The stuff you actually buy every single week. Core CPI jumped 0.4% month-over-month, blowing past estimates. That's not "sticky inflation gradually fading." That's inflation re-accelerating while the market was already pricing in three rate cuts this year. Here's what most people are missing: this isn't just a Fed story. Rising food and energy costs act like a stealth tax on consumers. Discretionary spending gets squeezed first — restaurants, travel, retail. Companies like Target and Dollar General that depend on price-sensitive shoppers are about to feel it. Meanwhile, energy names are quietly having their best quarter in two years. Oil above $100 isn't just a geopolitical headline anymore. It's feeding directly into pump prices and CPI prints, creating a feedback loop the Fed can't ignore. The bond market gets it. The 10-year just spiked to 4.65%. Stocks haven't caught up yet. They will. $XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) $TGT (Target Corp) $DG $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $XLP (State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.