Simion Furdui @Inv1nctus: "𝘼 𝙗𝙞𝙜 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠. 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙨..."

United Kingdom

𝘼 𝙗𝙞𝙜 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠. 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤. The Federal Reserve is getting a new leader. The Senate is voting this week on Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends Friday. Warsh is expected to be more focused on keeping the dollar strong than on keeping stock prices high. That is a meaningful shift. Markets are already pricing it in. -At the same time, US inflation data lands Tuesday and Wednesday. Gas is above $4.50 a gallon. That number is going to show up in the CPI print and it will not be pretty. The bigger question is Wednesday's PPI — if what companies are paying to produce things is rising faster than what they can charge customers, profit margins start getting squeezed. That matters for earnings. -In Europe, energy costs are up 50%. The ECB is stuck. They cannot print their way out of a supply problem. Eurozone sentiment is already at multi-year lows and this week's data is unlikely to help. -The Bank of Japan is the wildcard nobody is talking about loudly enough. If Japanese inflation keeps climbing and the BoJ is forced to raise rates, a lot of borrowed money that has been sitting in Western assets gets pulled back home fast. That kind of move can be disruptive. 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙄 𝙖𝙢 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙙. The easy trade of buying high-valuation tech on every dip is getting harder to justify. Energy constraints and a more hawkish Fed are a headwind for companies priced for perfection. Where I see the real opportunity is in physical supply chains. The US, Japan, and the Philippines are building out a serious industrial corridor in the Pacific — semiconductors, manufacturing, logistics. Capital is moving toward places that control real things. That theme is not going away. The dollar looks strong in this environment. Real assets and industrial commodities look interesting on dips. I am staying selective, watching the jobs data closely, and not chasing noise. If the labour market cracks under a hawkish Fed, the whole picture changes again. More updates as the week unfolds. Happy Investing Simion $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $GOLD $BTC

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.