Michael Jensen @GenesisGains: "Copier update! Hello everyone, First of..."

Denmark

Copier update! Hello everyone, First of all, I want to pay my respects to all of you. You are among the most dedicated investors on this platform. Your confidence in what I've been doing throughout these unusual markets, and your patience along the way, have been remarkable. Let's be honest: how many investors would stick around while seeing only 27% of their funds invested for the better part of a month after I cut our exposure down to the bone? Trust me, not many. It takes a certain level of understanding to recognize that while I reduced our overall exposure significantly—from 99% at the end of March to roughly 27% a month ago—I reduced exposure in the right places. Most stocks were declining, so why would I insist on staying fully invested in them? At the same time, I reduced position sizes across the portfolio while increasing exposure to our strongest winners such as $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.), $MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd), $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) and others. Some of these positions advanced 100–200%, and we didn't miss the move. On the contrary, we added on pullbacks and continued building around strength. So credit where credit is due: well done to all of you for staying the course. For the last month, Phase 1 was all about protecting capital and preserving the gains we had already made. Now we are entering Part 2 of the Hunt. The objective is simple: secure as much discount as possible without missing a potential turn higher in the market. And if that turn comes sooner than expected, we have a plan for that as well. As many of you know, I reduced position sizes by 25% about a month ago. Today I began increasing new positions by 25%. Most likely next week I will add another 25% to selected positions. Not every stock, of course, but where I believe the risk-reward justifies it. The $NSDQ100 is now roughly 5% below its recent all-time high and fell another 3.5% today alone. We managed to finish green yesterday, and today's drawdown is only around 1%. I suppose this is what proper risk management looks like. We all know why the market finally broke. I've been updating you regularly not only about the headlines but also about what has been happening behind the scenes. For months, markets largely ignored growing risks in the Middle East and continued pushing higher as every optimistic headline fueled the euphoria. Eventually, reality catches up. Whether the conflict ends tomorrow or not, some economic damage has already been done, and I would not be surprised to see another wave of inflation finding its way to consumers in the months ahead. At the same time, the AI narrative has started to face tougher questions. Where are the profits? So far, most of the money has been made by the companies selling the picks and shovels, while many customers have simply been burning through enormous amounts of cash waiting for meaningful returns. Companies also discovered that replacing employees with AI wasn't always as cheap as advertised, especially as AI-related costs continued to rise. And as I've stressed many times before: where is all the infrastructure needed to support this expansion? Power grids, transmission networks, data centers and cooling systems all require enormous investment before meaningful returns can be generated. Don't get me wrong: AI is a fantastic technology. But just like railways, electricity and the internet before it, the winners will emerge over time while many participants disappear along the way. Our task is not to buy every story. Our task is to identify the survivors, find the future stars, and add them to the portfolio at the right prices. As for today's sell-off, the official explanation was the "better-than-expected" Non-Farm Payroll report. Fair enough. Personally, I could probably give you a dozen more convincing reasons. As for where markets go from here, I'm not going to pretend I know. My job is not to predict where the market will be next week or next month. My job is to follow the price action, manage risk, identify opportunities, and make sure we extract as much profit as possible when the next opportunity presents itself. And that's exactly what Part 2 of the Hunt is about. I wish you all a fantastic weekend. As always, if you have any questions, you know where to find me. Mike

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.