Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 23 ꜰᴇʙʀᴜᴀʀʏ 2026 As..."

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ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 23 ꜰᴇʙʀᴜᴀʀʏ 2026 As AI advances, both extreme upside and downside scenarios for the global economy are becoming increasingly plausible. A negative scenario circulating among investors today comes from Citrini Research. www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic Citrini argues that rapid advances in AI could, paradoxically, lead to a deep global economic slump by mid-2028. The story begins in late 2025, when agentic AI tools cross a critical capability threshold in software engineering. This begins to erode the economic foundations of parts of the software industry. In 2026, as AI capabilities improve, companies start to lay off white-collar workers. The savings are invested into additional AI deployments, which accelerates layoffs further. In 2027, disruption shifts from a sectoral phenomenon to a systemic one. AI agents increasingly remove economic friction, undermining not only software companies but also financial, legal, real estate and other services. By early 2028, there is large-scale labor displacement, steep declines in discretionary spending, and growing stress in credit markets. The downturn intensifies through 2028, unemployment rises sharply, and stock markets crash. There are several counterarguments to Citrini’s thesis. The Citrini scenario assumes near-perfect AI capabilities and rapid, widespread adoption by 2028, ignoring real-world frictions like technical limitations, regulatory hurdles, and integration challenges. Some argue that rather than permanently displacing jobs, AI will augment human work, enabling new job creation and entrepreneurship. Historically, humans have adapted to new technologies and more job opportunities have been created than destroyed. Growth in "AI-assisted" roles could outpace losses in other areas. Some studies suggest no meaningful productivity gains from AI have yet been observed. Finally, interventions such as universal basic income (UBI) could redistribute AI gains and prevent a collapse in consumer spending. The cone of possible outcomes is currently wider than it has been since the beginning of Covid, with uncertainty about the extent and scope of AI disruption increasing. After last month’s market moves, AI risk is firmly on every investment professional’s radar. Yet most households remain largely unaware of the latest agentic technologies. This suggests the impact has not yet been fully felt in the economy, politics or the markets. I remain constructive on the economy in the short run. But I assign a non-trivial probability to a very disruptive AI scenario unfolding over the next couple of years. There may come a time within the next 12 months when positioning needs to turn more defensive. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 ICG and BNP were sold; UNITE Group and Equity Residential were added. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS

www.citriniresearch.com

A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future

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