James Campion
James Campion
United Arab Emirates
4mo
ING | "Hormuz Blockade Back in Focus as Ceasefire Fails" The US-Iran ceasefire has failed, halting all oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. ING believes this physical supply shock will keep oil prices supported, overriding bearish fundamental data in the near term. ICE Brent has rebounded above $97/bbl as the market prices in significant supply disruption risk. ($USO) OIL: GEOPOLITICS TRUMPS INVENTORIES ING notes the market is looking past bearish US inventory data. The focus is on the hard supply stop in a critical chokepoint. • US crude stocks rose 3.1m barrels, a seventh consecutive build, to the highest level since June 2023. • Inventories are now 2% above the five-year average. • Despite this, the full halt of Hormuz traffic is the dominant pricing factor. GAS & GOLD REFLECT RENEWED RISK The ceasefire collapse is creating sharp, headline-driven moves across other commodities. • European gas (TTF) saw its steepest daily fall in two years (over 20% to EUR 42.5/MWh) on initial ceasefire optimism. With no LNG tankers transiting Hormuz and EU storage at a low 28.8% full, this reversal highlights acute sensitivity to the blockade. • Gold is trading , after it's initial sell of, more like a geopolitical barometer, paring gains from its brief move above $4,800/oz as risk appetite evaporates. ($GLD) Source: ING | Finvaulta --- A summary of the ING research report.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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