18 - August 2024 - End of month report
And the wait goes on…
Let me address some administrative details first. Moving forward, and somewhat against my initial belief but in line with what I’m told is the industry standard, I will be changing the naming convention for portfolio valuations. In short, what I previously referred to as the “unrealised” value - i.e., the value of the portfolio based on the money invested but without any trades being closed - will now be called the “realised” value. Conversely, the value of the portfolio if I were to close all trades will now be termed the “unrealised” value. The latter is the method used by eToro for its statistics, while the former is what matters most to me, as it aligns with my policy of avoiding sales at a loss and is what I use to evaluate growth year on year.
Now, onto the substantive issues. The only thing I can say is that there is no clear alternative to waiting for things to correct themselves, at least somewhat.
There has been some debate in the comments and on the Telegram Group (Macchia69) about possible immediate shifts in strategy and the potential for opening new positions at this level. Don’t get me wrong, I understand the frustration most of you are feeling. Multiply that by a large leverage, and you’ll get a sense of my frustration. However, I cannot, I repeat, CANNOT open positions with the bulk of the portfolio so far out of the grid. Doing so would risk a potentially catastrophic loss, and I do not want to become another casualty in the risky world of leveraged trading.
I am confident that the index will correct itself enough for me to realign the strategy and resume trading. This, in turn, will stop the haemorrhaging caused by fees and dividends and allow me to trim the lower shorts without causing the portfolio to drop too much.
So far, the fees and dividends have cost me roughly 3 to 4% of the realised portfolio, while the unrealised portfolio is currently at a drawdown of approximately -40%, but this is the beauty of drawdown, it’s only theoretical if one does not close trades. Of course, the actual drawdown, as well as the real portfolio value seen by copiers depends on when they opened the copy.
In my view, the only things needed now are nerves and patience, which I know is a lot to ask of traders. However, an uncertain gain is, in my mind, better than a certain loss.
Finally, I apologise for the prolonged silence, partly due to the lack of significant updates and partly due to my being away for some of August. I will be more active in the feed in the coming month. 😉
💰 The growth for this month was -$ 1688 (-1.69%) 😭
⏺️ eToro data
- Month Average Risk: 6,
- Month Max Risk: 6,
- Performance -9.35%,
- Copiers number: 546, -60 (-9.9%),
- AUM: $ 1,240,000, $ 1,480,000 (-16.21%)
- Portfolio value:
- Realised: $ 97,837
- Unrealised: $ 52,510
- Portfolio composition:
- Index: 81.19% ($UK100)
- Share: 3.10% ($SBSW (Sibanye Stillwater Ltd-ADR))
- ETF 1.53% ($VNQ)
- Cash: 14.18%
⏺️ My data:
- Realised performance
- Total change: -$ 1688 (-1.69%)
- Weekly breakdown:
- W1 -0.04%,
- W2 0.21%,
- W3 -1.45%,
- W4 -0.20%,
- W5 -0.21x%
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Capisco benissimo il senso del tuo discorso. Chi non rischia non rosica... Io sono con te e non mollo... Basta attendere... Buon lavoro ... Show More Translate
Hi Alex,
What is the level of correction you are waiting for (as mentioned on your post)? For example, you (we) have sell positions opened on UK100 ranging from (8200 to 7485). At what UK100 drawdown rate will you restart trading? Also, at that drawdown rate, will you cut loose the lower end of our... Show More
"but this is the beauty of drawdown, it’s only theoretical if one does not close trades"
Decades of portfolio management theory and opportunity-cost analysis would strongly disagree with this statement.
But kudos to you for trying something different. With millions of dollars under management, you could... Show More
It's certainly not a valid analysis and a lot of criticism, but Alex is right. We need to be patient. If the index goes up a bit more, I think the outcome will be obvious. The main thing is to remain calm.
The British index has little correlation with the major US indices and trades in narrow ranges... Show More
I ve experienced your good times also, so i'll stick around.
And i think its good to follow your own strategy. I'm following u and not your followers. ... Show More
Great post as always and thanks for the heads up on the change in terminology.
This is not just in line with industry standards but with the literal meanings of those words. Your $45k drawdown has not been "realised" aka "made real" therefore it's an unrealised loss. And vice versa. The $97k stake... Show More
Alex, there nothing more depressing than seeing a sea of red figures, but as others have said, the key to making money is patience. I'm comfortable investing with your strategy and look forward to seeing green again.... Show More
Quello che mi pare di poter constatare è che l'indice UK100 è da tempo uno dei più resilienti e temo che lo sarà anche nei prossimi mesi e sperare in eventi catastrofici per tornare in guadagno è a dir poco... irrazionale (guadagneresti qui, per perdere altrove verosimilmente, almeno che non si abbia... Show More Translate
@Macchia69 short 8300📉7750 (not financial advice) looks like a nice opportunity to me. It’s unfortunate that you cannot DCA at 8300, due to grid strategy.
There will be recovery in your portfolio, but 7750 and 7600 are likely to have strong support. I don’t pretend to fully understand your grid trading... Show More
Hy! Is there a historical phase in the Uk 100 lifespan that is similar to what we are seeing now. What were the causes and what were the reactions on the market. Mvh Diana ... Show More
Hi @Macchia69 ,
sytuacja na rynkach akcji robi się trudna,powoli to zaczyna także dotyczyć $UK100 czyli naszego portfela.
Wszystko wskazuje na to że znowu zaczniemy poważnie zarabiać na tym portfelu...
Po raz kolejny cierpliwość i konsekwencja zostaną nagrodzone :-)
Ci którzy opuścili tą łódź zbyt... Show More Translate
@Macchia69 Alex, un'operazione conclusa con $ 1.50 di gain e -$5.35 di spesa per commissioni la ritieni una buona operazione ? Puoi spiegare, grazie. ... Show More Translate
Hi @Macchia69 ,
Ta strategia przez ostatnie miesiące przynosi tylko wysokie opłaty,powoli po 2 latach zaczynam tracić cierpliwość.Poczekam jeszcze kilka tygodni i przy najbliższym wycofaniu -2% na $UK100 zamknę kopię i przeniosę środki gdzieś indziej...
Masz coś do powiedzenia w tej kwestii?
Chętnie... Show More Translate