Zechariah Bin Zheng @FundManagerZech: "𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁:..."

Australia

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁: 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗕𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗛𝘆𝗽𝗲 🧾 𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥 📉 We’re up ~0.9% for the month, but the crowd’s ignoring downside risk. ⚠️ Credit & retail cracks: Tricolor, CarMax, First Brands. 📚 This Time Is Different reminds us crashes come quietly. 🧠 We can’t hedge early — timing kills. Patience, cash, and survival first. 💭 1️⃣ 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙝 𝙞𝙣 𝙍𝙚𝙛𝙡𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 It’s been an odd month. Not losing, but lagging. We’re up 0.9%, yet the real story is how few care about risk. Most investors are fully deployed, assuming the good times last forever. We’ve done okay this year — solid, not spectacular. In China, we might’ve made more chasing growth ($BABA) instead of safe infrastructure, but our AI and semiconductor holdings have helped. I’ve said this before: I don’t expect to outperform at market tops. My best work shows up when markets are bleeding — 2018, 2022 — when our focus on defense pays off. Anyone claiming to make money in every cycle is either got lucky, or hasn’t faced a regime change yet. Most strategies only work in one climate. When the wind shifts, they break. 📚 2️⃣ “𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙏𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙄𝙨 𝘿𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩” — 𝙀𝙭𝙘𝙚𝙥𝙩 𝙄𝙩 𝙉𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙄𝙨 Reinhart and Rogoff’s This Time Is Different studied 800 years of financial crises. The pattern never changes: optimism, leverage, denial, collapse. Before every crash — 1929, 2000, 2008 — headlines were cheerful. Analysts saw “soft landings.” Markets hit highs days before they fell apart. That’s the point: you’ll never see the red flag waving. Crashes rarely announce themselves. The belief that “this time is different” is what always makes it the same. ⚙️ 3️⃣ 𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙒𝙚 𝘿𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙧 𝙃𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝘼𝙜𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙮 People often ask why we don’t hedge more if we see risks. The truth is timing kills. Look at 2006–2007: many brilliant investors shorted subprime early and went broke before the 2008 crash proved them right. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So we stay disciplined: reduce exposure, hold cash, and wait for opportunity instead of trying to predict it. Our goal isn’t to call the top — it’s to survive the turn. 🏬 4️⃣ 𝘾𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨 𝘽𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙪𝙧𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙚 While AI stocks dominate headlines, the real economy is creaking. 🚗 Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, collapsed, a warning on consumer credit. 🏢 CarMax plunged 24% after weak earnings — slower demand and tighter lending are biting. ⚠️ First Brands Group filed for bankruptcy after pledging the same collateral to multiple lenders — a shadow finance red flag. These aren’t random. They’re early tremors. When credit tightens, consumers pull back, and that pressure flows upward — hitting advertising, hardware, and cloud demand. Even Big Tech feels it eventually. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) 📉 5️⃣ 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙃𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 The toughest part isn’t losing — it’s underperforming while everyone else celebrates. The “idiot neighbour” effect is real. But discipline means staying cautious when others chase. We can’t predict when the next shock hits. We can, however, make sure we’re ready when it does — with cash, patience, and composure. 🔄 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 📚 This Time Is Different reminds us human nature doesn’t change — only the excuses do. 💵 We won’t short early; survival beats bravado. 🚗 Cracks are forming under the surface, even if few are watching. When the cycle turns, I want us positioned to buy the panic — not join it. 💬 𝗜’𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻 — 𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜’𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝘀𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗜 𝗰𝗮𝗻!

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NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

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