Mihail Stefanov
Reflections on the Theme of Gold Despite the strong performance of $GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) over the past year, they still trade at extremely low valuations compared to the price of $GOLD itself. A return to the long-term averages from the past 50 years could send their valuations significantly higher. A potential catalyst for such a move could be a rotation out of technology stocks, which currently appear highly valued. For context, the combined market capitalization of $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $GOOG (Alphabet) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) and $MSFT (Microsoft) is 25 times larger than that of the entire Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index. Yet when we look at free cash flows, the companies within the index generate levels comparable to those of Nvidia—while being valued eight times lower. Remarkably, a single tech company today is valued higher than the entire German economy, three times higher than the entire energy sector, and eight times higher than the entire gold-mining sector. Taking a step back, the sector remains one of the most undervalued in the market, while at the same time being composed of some of the most profitable companies today. Strong earnings, robust free cash flow, near-zero net debt, and low valuations all support this view. The gold-mining industry continues to offer an entry point with a compelling asymmetric risk-reward profile. $GLD (SPDR Gold) $NUGT (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares) $SILVER $SLV (iShares Silver Trust)
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