ArjunGaur
What’s Something You Strongly Believe That’s Likely Wrong? 1. Blindspot Barrier Let’s agree on three things - - You have lots of beliefs. - You don’t know everything. - Therefore, some of those beliefs are incomplete, misguided, or wrong. This isn’t a criticism. It applies to everyone, including and specially myself. 2. Ego Barrier But while everyone knows they have to be wrong about something, few of us want to admit or think hard about what that something might be. Admitting you’re wrong about something you believe means admitting you haven’t fully thought things through. And while most of us are OK being told we don’t know everything, being told we have a lazy thought process is hard to interpret as anything but an insult. So we have the ultimate cognitive dissonance - Fully aware that we’re wrong about something but unable to admit being wrong about anything. 3. Avoiding Mistakes Peter Thiel says the most important question to ask someone interviewing for a job is, 'What important truth do very few people agree with you on?' I think another good one is, 'What’s something you strongly believe that’s likely wrong?' It’s such a strange question, nearly impossible to answer without contradicting yourself. But it’s an important questions for one reason - In many fields, particularly investing, you can make more progress getting ahead by avoiding mistakes than you can making brilliant decisions. Charlie Munger put it this way - 'It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.' 4. Investing Investing is simple, but surprisingly difficult. Especially for individual investors, the idea of 'Buy some index funds in your Tax Efficient Account, add a little bit each month, leave it alone for 30 years' is painfully simple, yet something only a small group of investors actually pull off. When something is simple but difficult to achieve, the right question to ask isn’t, 'What can I learn to help me get better?' It’s, 'What belief is getting in my way that I should let go of?' It’s when you should ask, 'What do I strongly believe that’s likely wrong?' 5. Conclusion How to navigate around these things that aren't possible true - Simple - Rather than betting on that extra special fail-proof business over and over again, how about getting creative and finding other Diverse Opportunities like $KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corp) $URI (United Rentals Inc) $LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp) $RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc) and $TDY (Teledyne Technologies Incorporated) ggsc.s3.amazonaws.com/images/uploads/Can_we_overcome_our_brains_negativity_bias.jpg I welcome you all to look at my Portfolio and add it to your Watchlist >> I look forward to growing with all of you : )