Alexander Tapia @alexddtl1: "📊 Portfolio Positioning & Market..."

Peru

📊 Portfolio Positioning & Market View (Oct 2025) $UNH (UnitedHealth) 18.89% $SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc) 13.62% $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) 11.43% $BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) 7.59% $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) 6.69% $CIFR (Cipher Mining Inc) 6.5% $NBIS (Nebius Group NV) 6.32% $ALAB (Astera Labs Inc) 5.4% $APP (Applovin Corp) 5.24% $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) 4.61% $BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc) 4.43% $STRL.US (Sterling Infrastructure Inc) 2.92% $OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) 2.81% $FLNC (Fluence Energy Inc.) 1.79% $CNC (Centene Corp) 1.75% 🌍 Macro View The market continues to reach new all-time highs, trading at historically elevated valuations. This rally has been fueled primarily by expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a massive wave of retail inflows. In fact, retail investors set a new record last month with 105 billion in equity purchases, further amplifying market momentum. However, this positioning also leaves the market highly vulnerable to a correction, particularly if expectations for rate cuts adjust downward. Current market pricing appears overly optimistic relative to recent macroeconomic data. While core inflation hasn’t spiked as initially feared following tariff adjustments—thanks to companies absorbing the impact through lower margins—it has shown signs of reacceleration. In addition, the latest Services PMI data revealed rising price expectations and weakening employment, suggesting that the Fed may be entering an easing cycle in a stagflationary environment. Another noteworthy signal is the positive correlation between the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 in recent days, which historically tends to indicate late-stage bullishness and potential instability. Meanwhile, call option volumes have exceeded 40 million contracts per day over the past month, underscoring excessive optimism and speculative behavior. Although the bullish narrative may persist in the near term—especially in the absence of major catalysts while the government shutdown delays key data releases—there is now a potential inflection point ahead. Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the inflation report will try to release it at the end of the month despite the shutdown. If inflation continues to accelerate, this could act as the trigger for a market correction, forcing investors to reprice rate-cut expectations. 📊 Positioning In recent days, I’ve started to trim profits and lower the beta of my portfolio, shifting toward a more defensive stance. I’ve been building positions in high-quality, resilient names such as Berkshire Hathaway and increasing exposure to UnitedHealth Group, while also adding short-term Treasury exposure through SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL). In the coming days, I plan to continue trimming cyclical exposure, keeping a high level of liquidity and positioning for what I believe could be a healthy market correction. This would likely present attractive buy-the-dip opportunities, given the prevailing liquidity backdrop and retail investors’ tendency to step in aggressively during pullbacks. $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETN) $UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF)

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