Cari utenti,
Quello appena passato è stato un agosto estremamente turbolento, caratterizzato da alti livelli di voltatilità, ovvero di "paura" nei confronti di eventuali ribassi nei mercati azionari USA.
All'inizio del mese i principali indici azionari hanno avuto un forte è improvviso crollo, sia in seguito all'uscita delle trimestrali delle grandi aziende statunitensi dell'AI, sia a seguito dell'improvviso aumento dei tassi da parte della banca centrale giapponese, che ha mandato in margin call diversi carry trades.
Questo, per il nostro portafoglio, è stato un evento estremamente profittevole, che ha portato a un +25% di rendimento.
Ad oggi, però, gli indici S&P500 e Nasdaq100 sembrano aver totalmente dimenticato la lezione impartita dalle trimestrali e sono nuovamente immersi in un'euforia da taglio tassi, in attesa cioè che la Federal Reserve tagli i tassi per 6 o 7 volte nei prossimi 12 mesi.
Se ciò non dovesse accadere, la curva dei tassi in prossimità delle scadenze di lungo periodo potrebbe vedere i tassi aumentare e il valore delle obbligazioni su lunga scadenza decrescere.
Ad oggi, pertanto, le aspettative sui prezzi azionari e obbligazionari restano negative, senza escludere ulteriori slanci positivi nel brevissimo periodo come conseguenza dell'aspettativa sulla decisione di Jerome Powell di metà settembre circa un taglio o meno dei tassi di interesse.
Buon inizio settembre,
Stefano
$SPX500$NSDQ100$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )$GOLD$GLD (SPDR Gold)... Show More Translate
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