FundManagerZech
๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ โ€“ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ ๐—”๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—น ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ Since my last video on Monday, weโ€™ve started deploying capital again. While we didnโ€™t catch the exact bottom (and it may still be falling), ๐—œ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ. In case you missed the video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QYLW-vKWCY&t=222s ๐Ÿ”น Deployed 5% into $VTY.L (Vistry Group PLC) a company with a strong partnership-based business model that I believe is relatively recession-resilient. ๐Ÿ”น Added to Bitcoin ($BTC) and topped up some of our existing positions. ๐Ÿ”น We still hold 14% cash, which I fully intend to deploy when the timing is right. ๐Ÿ”น We sold out of Pebblebrook, as Iโ€™ve turned cautious on the tourism outlook. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ ๐—ข๐—ถ๐—น & ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฉ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† Oil has continued to fall sharply, which has weighed heavily on our portfolioโ€”particularly in our offshore and shipping exposures. But this is often where I find opportunity: when thereโ€™s a disconnect between market prices and real-world fundamentals. โš’๏ธ ๐—ข๐—ณ๐—ณ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ โ€“ ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜€ ($๐—ฉ๐—”๐—Ÿ) Valaris remains a large holding despite falling more than 40% and still dropping this week, and its valuation looks increasingly compelling amid the selloff. Market Cap: ~$2.06 billion Net Debt: ~$800 million Enterprise Value (EV): ~$2.86 billion For this price, you get: 12x 7th Gen Drillships 1x high-quality 6th Gen Drillship 5 Semi-submersibles 33 modern Jackups (JUs) 50% stake in ARO Drilling (a JV with Saudi Aramco owning 9 more JUs) Building this fleet from scratch today would likely cost $25 billion+. That makes Valarisโ€™ current EV of ~$2.86B a strong value proposition, especially for long-term investors. ๐Ÿšข ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด โ€“ ๐——๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ($๐——๐—”๐—–) Danaos is another large and undervalued name in our portfolio: Book Value per Share: $108.99 Shares Outstanding: ~20.6M Total Book Value: ~$2.24 billion Enterprise Value: ~$1.46 billion The stock is trading well below book, despite strong fundamentals. ๐Ÿ“ฆ Why shipping still interests me: 1. Low new supply: The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is near multi-decade lows. Environmental uncertainty (IMO 2023 & 2030) is slowing down newbuilds. 2. High cost of newbuilds: Steel and labor costs have surged. Rising rates make financing harder. Industry consolidation reduces overbuilding risk. All this pushes up the value of existing fleets and supports Danaosโ€™ long-term value. ๐—ช๐—ฒโ€™๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜, ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒโ€™๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€๐—ผ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ โ€” ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜„๐—ฒโ€™๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ป๐˜€. ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ป.
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