๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ | Records, CPI, and the post-Powell era
11 May โ 15 May
Stocks closed at fresh highs Friday on a hot jobs print, with the chip complex doing all the heavy lifting. The week ahead is denser. Tuesday's CPI is the macro pivot, Wednesday brings China's biggest tech earnings, and Friday is Powell's last day as Fed Chair. Three catalysts, three reads.
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐
โฒ SPX 2.3%, โฒ NDX 5.5%. Asia firm (NIKKEI โฒ3.6%, HSI โฒ2.4%), Europe mixed (FTSE โผ1.4%, DAX flat).
Signals: chips dominated. $AMD ripped 26% on the week despite a SELL rating in my screen. Trust the model, but flag the divergence.
Census: top 100 PIs jumped from 3.4% to 6.7% YTD in a single week. Cash steady at 11.4%, and they piled into $SNDK, $IONQ, $ARM, $AMAT, $SOXL. All silicon-adjacent.
๐ง๐ต๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ
๐ญ) ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐.
$CSCO, $BABA, $AMAT and $NU report Wednesday and Thursday. Cisco and Applied Materials are the AI-infrastructure read after AMD's blowout: if hyperscaler capex is still accelerating, the chip melt-up has another leg. BABA and Tencent (Wednesday HKT close) tell us if Chinese consumers are actually spending or whether stimulus is just propping up SOEs. NU sits inside my portfolio, and the Brazil credit cycle matters far more than the headline beat.
๐ฎ) ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ.
April CPI lands Tuesday 8:30 ET. Consensus is +3.7% headline, +2.7% core. Anything hotter and the soft-landing crowd loses the narrative; anything in line and the rally has a green light to extend. PPI Wednesday plus retail sales Thursday round out the picture. Powell's last day as Chair is Friday, which is symbolic, but the curve has been pricing a more hawkish successor for weeks.
๐ฏ) ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐๐.
Iran. The US fired on Iranian targets last week and the response so far has been muted. If that changes, oil and defence move first, then the dollar. Burry called this tape "the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble", which is worth keeping in the back pocket alongside the chip frenzy.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐'๐บ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด
$AVGO, the cleanest AI infrastructure name if Cisco and AMAT confirm hyperscaler capex hasn't peaked.
$ASML, direct equipment beneficiary if Applied Materials beats and guides a strong second half.
$BABA, paired with Tencent on Wednesday for the China big-tech read.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ
Top 100 PIs doubled their YTD gain in a week without raising cash. They are leaning in, not derisking, even at all-time highs. Tuesday's CPI decides whether the lean continues or someone hits the brakes.
Sharing what I'm watching, not investment advice.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Your observation about top 100 PIs doubling YTD gains while leaning into chips at all-time highs is a fascinating sentiment indicator. The concentration in SNDK, IONQ, ARM suggests considerable conviction in the AI infrastructure theme. Tuesday's CPI will likely determine whether this momentum trade... Show More
@AlphaWizzard Good read. The census data shows PIs are concentrated in the same chip names, which is both a momentum signal and a crowding risk. CPI Tuesday is the next catalyst. If it prints hot, the AI trade gets a real stress test on the rate-sensitivity side.... Show More
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Tue Jun 09 2026 04:45:38 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
