Filip Brnadic @PROJECT10X: "To my copiers, I talk about..."

Australia

To my copiers, I talk about the good executions, so it’s only fair I do the same for the bad ones. There were two recent trades that, in hindsight, should have been executed more effectively. First, I anticipated a correction. After taking profits and sitting in over 80% cash, I re-entered shortly after the liquidation cascade on 10/10. Looking back at past liquidation events (Feb, Apr, May 2021), one thing stands out - the liquidation wick tends to be filled, and only after that does price choose direction. This time, I entered too early on the pullback, by mistakenly assuming that US China trade war resolution was a greater catalyst than the "4-year cycle" narrative Lesson: when you’re bullish on the medium term (I am) and especially heading into 2026 (I am), then following a liquidation cascade, it’s better to wait for the wick retrace before entering. No ifs, but's or maybe's. Lesson noted and now part of my rules. Second, one of my main goals is capital preservation. I mapped out demand zones for each asset and set my circuit breakers near the bottom of those zones, rather than below them, in order to preserve capital. The result is that my CB triggered close to the local bottom. No excuses. Had those CBs been set just outside the zone (below where trend confirmation breaks), we’d still be in those positions. For example, for SOL, outside the demand zone was ~$145. Lesson: never set exit orders inside a demand zone, even if trying to preserve capital. Set it above or below. I’m not frustrated that I cut losing trades. That’s part of the game, and something I’ll always do when my framework signals it. If my thesis is correct, the total portfolio loss from these mistakes is <5%. On cutting trades: ETOR is down another 15% since I cut, SUI more than 25%. Those exits were correct. What frustrates me about the more recent trades is the execution. But execution can always be refined, and it will be. What matters for me and my copiers is continuous improvement - adjusting the framework, refining the process, and staying disciplined. That’s how good investors evolve, and I will do exactly that. I’ve now added exposure to SOL and ETH on the basis that my “lower before higher” thesis has played out, and I’m positioning for the thesis that I had laid out following the sell-off (i.e. bullish 2026). Could BTC and majors drift lower from here? Absolutely. A plausible bottom could form in the low 90Ks for BTC and the 130s for SOL. That said, anywhere in this region offers a strong risk-reward setup if your thesis, like mine, is a bullish 2026. What I’m seeing more broadly: ➡️ Equities are holding up (for now) despite higher services PMI data + reduced odds of a December rate cut + QE potentially occurring on the short-end instead of the long-end ➡️ The government shutdown appears to be ending sooner than expected ➡️ Bearish sentiment in crypto has bottomed out ➡️ My 2026 macro outlook remains bullish Potential headwinds I’m watching: ➡️ DXY is climbing, which could pressure risk assets ➡️ If the NASDAQ falls below 24,186, it could mark a shift to bearish structure - not my base case, but worth noting ➡️ If BTC falls below $97K for a meaningful amount of time, altcoins will fall lower i.e. $130's for SOL. I'm not trying to refine my strategy to get perfect entries and exits. I'm trying to manage risk, preserve capital, and position where the probability of asymmetric upside is highest. As such, I've decided to reallocate. ✌🏽 Filip $BTC $AUS200 $NSDQ100 $UK100 $GER40

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