Weekly Wednesday Thesis
Structural demand across the AI infrastructure stack is still intensifying, not plateauing.
In the last few weeks hyperscalers have again raised 2026 CapEx guidance (Amazon to ~$220B, Alphabet to $195–205B, Meta higher), TSMC lifted its full-year growth outlook above 40% and CapEx to $60–64B, ASML guided higher while signalling further capacity expansion into 2027–28, Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue continues to compound at triple-digit rates with multi-year visibility, and CoreWeave just reported a $104B backlog plus another $25B of new commitments. Nvidia’s newly announced financing platforms with major institutions add another layer of committed capital to the same build-out.
These are not soft signals. They are concrete, multi-year orders, capacity commitments and capital allocation decisions across the entire AI stack.
Short-term price swings will occur, but for me they remain noise relative to that trajectory. A concentrated portfolio is the deliberate choice to stay exposed to the full stack rather than dilute the thesis into broader diversification that captures less of the actual demand.
YTD +59% at risk score 5 reflects both the strength of the underlying trend and the volatility that high-conviction positioning inevitably carries.
My approach stays the same. Hold the high-conviction positions through the noise as long as the structural evidence continues to strengthen.
Have a nice day,
Stephan... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Good morning, congrats on the YTD +59% at risk score 5, those CapEx raises and the $104B backlog keep the AI thesis intact, thanks for the research.... Show More
Thanks Stephan! Have a great day as well🤝... Show More
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