Pietari Laurila
United Arab Emirates
3m
ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 1 ꜱᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025 Markets may be nearing a decisive turning point in the US dollar’s long cycle of dominance. The US currency tends to move in powerful, self-reinforcing waves that last far longer than equity or business cycles, averaging around 18 years. ninetyone.com/-/media/documents/insights/2025/91-the-unstoppable-dollar-meets-the-immovable-mr-trump-en.pdf These phases of strength and weakness are driven by four factors working together: geopolitics, relative interest rate differentials, global capital flows and, in some cases, active foreign-exchange intervention. The dollar only weakens materially when all four forces begin to shift at the same time, usually within a tight two-to-three-year window. In the early 1980s the dollar surged on the back of high US interest rates and strong capital inflows, before reversing in 1985 after the Plaza Accord when major economies intervened to weaken it. The late 1990s saw another powerful upswing as the tech boom, strong US growth and Asian crises pulled money into American assets. That cycle broke after 2002, when Europe and emerging markets began to attract flows and the US current account deficit widened, triggering a multi-year period of dollar weakness. The latest phase of strength began around 2011, driven by US growth outperformance, higher yields and global demand for safe assets. That leaves us with 14 years of dollar outperformance. The question now is whether history is set to repeat. A second Trump presidency is bringing about new tariffs and fiscal expansion, widening the US twin deficits and raising questions about future growth. At the same time, recoveries in Europe, Japan and China may erode the rate and growth gaps that have favoured the dollar since 2011. Capital is already beginning to flow out of the US, while US policymakers are signalling a preference for lower interest rates. If these shifts endure, the result could be the first durable US dollar downcycle since 2002. A weaker dollar would favour non-US assets, making diversification abroad less a matter of choice and more a necessity. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +28.9% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 None 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.
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