Yuri Zemtsov
Estonia
3m
Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have surged sharply since the start of the year, pushing to fresh highs. Despite the many explanations, the current rally looks largely speculative — prices have moved far away from equilibrium, even though momentum could still carry it higher. The risk of a sharp correction remains elevated. The rally is often attributed to inflation fears, the dollar, and geopolitics, but these factors don’t tell the full story: other commodities are declining, while demand is still heavily concentrated in growth equities. From a fundamental standpoint, the market is supported by tight supply. Platinum and silver production responds weakly to higher prices, and bringing new capacity online takes years. This creates a structural, long-term deficit. What comes next — nobody knows. In the short term, further upside is possible, but the move is extremely fragile. The probability of a pullback is high: historically, corrections tend to be the most violent in silver and the mildest in gold.
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