Mentioned
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY
-3.77 (-0.57%)
662.11
662.14
SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)
SPX500
-46.96 (-0.70%)
6627.38
6628.38
Wojciech Slowinski
Poland
3m
Edited
We are coming to an end of another year, which for my portfolio proved to be a record year in terms of my historical performance on eToro. As of today the year-to-date 2025 return of my portfolio is over 30%. At the end of each year, financial institutions come out with their forecasts for next year. In the past the predictions of major investment banks and asset managers have by no means been completely accurate. It appears that many analysts tend to extrapolate recent performance. With that said I believe it is always useful to see what other market participants are thinking and what are the reasons/ assumptions behind their forecasts. This will determine how and to what degree will they react to news and which of these news are “known knowns, known unknowns, or unknown unknowns”… Entering 2026, large investment banks broadly expect the global equity bull market to extend, albeit with higher volatility and more modest upside than in prior years. For the S&P 500 ( $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) or $SPX500 ) , published forecasts cluster within a relatively tight range and a median of 7,500 implying around 10% return. On of the most cautious outlooks among major institutions comes from Bank of America, with a year-end 2026 target near 7,100, reflecting concerns about elevated valuations, policy uncertainty, and the risk that earnings growth fails to fully justify current multiples. At the upper end, Oppenheimer projects the index could reach around 8,100, driven by strong productivity gains from AI, resilient consumer demand, and a supportive monetary policy backdrop. Most other banks—including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank—fall in a 7,400–7,800 range, implying mid-single- to low-double-digit upside. Citi for example set a target of 7,700 in base scenario but said: “ As the current bull market enters its fourth year, bouts of volatility should be expected and may be more acute given implicit growth expectations”. Furthermore, Citi expects the index to hit 8,300 in a bull-case scenario, and drop to 5,700 in the bear case. Across institutions, the central rationale is consistent: non-recessionary Fed easing, solid earnings growth, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal support justify continued equity exposure, while rich valuations and inflation risks argue for tempered expectations and greater volatility. Using this opportunity I would like to wish everybody good health and many successes (both professionally and personally) in the coming New Year 2026!
2 Mentioned
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)
SPX500
null
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