Moric Kocsa Pillmann @MoricPortfolio: "👀Weaker week this time; we..."

Hungary

👀Weaker week this time; we returned +0.5%, underperforming both benchmarks. The $SPX500 returned ~+2.3%, while the $NSDQ100 finished ~+1%. The underperformance is mostly due to semiconductors - $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) dropped ~-5.7% this week. ⚠️𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: 🔧𝐒𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐤𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐐𝟑 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐟𝐟 --> Memory stocks led the drop: $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) fell over 10%, $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) and $WDC (Western Digital Corporation) also declined, dragged lower by a broader South Korean chip rout (SK Hynix -14%, Samsung -9%) --> Profit-taking after an overdue correction: $Semiconductors gained a lot lately for a long time - a pullback/correction was arguably due, regardless of trigger --> AI valuation concerns resurfaced: investors questioning whether expanding chip capacity could flip today's tight memory supply into oversupply, pressuring future pricing and margins 💼𝐔.𝐬. 𝐣𝐨𝐛𝐬 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤 - 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐭 --> June payrolls added just 57,000 jobs vs ~110,000 expected, the softest print since February, with May and April both revised lower --> Fewer jobs signals slower growth, which lowers the odds the Fed hikes rates (July hike odds fell from ~29% to ~18% per CME FedWatch) - lower rate-hike risk is typically read as bullish for stocks - therefore, the strong performance of broader indices $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) 🧠𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: Broad market strength this week did not come from chips. Semis were the one sector working against the tape, and that's exactly where we're overweight. This reads as profit-taking rather than a fundamental break in the AI thesis. Let me know your thoughts or if you have any questions in the comments! Best, Moric

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.