COPIERS AND FOLLOWERS UPDATE
Hi everyone, another update from me as world economies continue to navigate the ups and downs of the Iranian conflict.
The past few weeks have seen huge attacks on Iranian infrastructure, increasing levels aggression from Trump with the promise of wiping out energy plants, only for a 2 week ceasefire to be announced. This ceasefire has been extended, but as always the main crunch of the conflict as far as markets are concerned is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Both Iran, who has blockaded oil shipments from leaving and entering the Strait and now the U.S, who is blockading Iranian vessels from leaving ports, show no sign of any let up in this increasingly lengthy standoff. An increasing number of analysts are now predicting that markets may soon start to wake up to the situation.
After the initial shock following the start of the conflict, markets have since risen back from the lows shown a few weeks ago, along with oil prices falling back somewhat as the fear of oil shortages so far have not materialized. Countries all over the world have been dipping into their oil reserves to make sure supply remains at the required levels. The concern now is that these supplies are starting to run low and in the not too distant future companies may have to cut back on production.
Even if the situation in Iran were to be resolved tomorrow, it is thought it would take months to get oil production back on track and supplies to be flowing properly. In the last week oil prices have been steadily creeping up to almost the same level following the initial conflict shock. More noticeably, long dated futures for oil and gas are now creeping higher too, with the understanding that this conflict will not be resolved anytime soon.
Bond prices are now heading higher as the prospect of higher inflation is now starting to get baked in to debt markets, so the decision to sell our U.K gilt position looks a good one for now. Rates on the 30 year U.K gilt are now at a pretty attractive level, so at some point we will be reinstating this position with an even better yield to go with it.
It may be that I start to sell a couple more of our broad sector etfs and market indices to take a little more risk off the table at this stage. At present the U.K market has fallen back a little (again, selling our FTSE 100 and 250 positions seem to have been a good move) but the U.S is still looking strong on the back of good earnings from companies and a recovery from software companies (which took a battering a few weeks ago on the prospects of A.I superiority)
Again, I will keep you all posted on any changes I make to the portfolio. In the meantime wishing you all a great rest of the week and stay posted for more updates from me soon.
Best wishes, Richard.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
The oil reserves depletion timeline is critical. Markets seem to assume this resolves quickly, but even if the Strait reopens tomorrow, supply chain normalization takes months. Long-dated futures creeping higher suggests smart money is pricing in extended disruption.... Show More
Markets are still complacent relative to the geopolitical reality, but that gap is beginning to close. Maybe we are heading to a scenario with high oil prices and market volatility.... Show More
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Tue Jun 16 2026 22:23:19 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
