Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "Welcome to the Strait of..."

Finland

Welcome to the Strait of Hormuz in a quantum state. One narrow strait now prices oil, food, and the AI trade at the same time. And right now nobody can tell you if it is open or closed. Open and shut at once, depending on who posted last. Trump declares it open and toll-ready. Iran calls it closed. The headlines flip faster than anyone can trade them. Markets have half-adjusted to the chaos. Brent is holding near $76, and the $SPX500 even closed the last session up 0.8%. Calm on the surface, still choppy underneath, because nobody trusts the next 24 hours. Here is what actually moves through that gap. Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil. A fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Close to a third of the fertilizer feeding crops from Asia to Europe. And the one most energy commentary skips - helium. Qatar ships it out through Hormuz, and helium is what cools and cleans chip fabs. Choke the Gulf and you eventually choke the wafers. Choke the wafers and you choke HBM, the memory every AI accelerator is starving for. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) already sold its high-bandwidth capacity out through 2027. Follow that thread far enough and it runs straight into the hyperscalers. Nvidia’s GPUs need Micron’s memory. Those GPUs fill the data centers $MSFT (Microsoft) and $META (Meta Platforms Inc) are racing to build. A gas loaded onto a tanker in the Gulf ends up gating an AI buildout in Virginia and Texas. So an oil story quietly becomes a compute story. $XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corp) feels the barrel. $SPX500 feels the mood. The AI chain feels the helium. One chokepoint, very different tickers. A couple of things I keep chewing on. Is the market treating this as background noise, or underpricing a supply shock that is one bad night away? And if a single strait can touch oil, food, and AI hardware at once, how much of your portfolio actually sits downstream of it? Curious where you land on this one. ——— ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.