Bernardus Smith @BernardusJS: "⚠️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴..."

Luxembourg

⚠️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 - 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴’𝘀 𝗢𝗳𝗳 Stock prices are hitting new highs. AI headlines sound unstoppable. But when you follow the money, the story doesn’t line up. 1️⃣ 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗿 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 • The Buffett Indicator (total stock market ÷ GDP) sits around 220%. • During the dot-com bubble, it peaked around 150%. • Markets are now more stretched relative to real output than at any point in modern history. 2️⃣ 𝗔𝗜 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 - 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀? • Big names - NVIDIA, AMD, Oracle, SoftBank, OpenAI keep announcing multi-billion-dollar “AI partnerships”. • In many cases, the money loops. Companies fund clients who spend it buying their own chips or services. • On paper it looks like growth but in reality it’s financial recycling - accounting smoke that inflates valuations. 3️⃣ 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗽𝘂𝘁 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 • Automation boosts productivity but cuts payrolls. • More goods, fewer buyers. • GDP can rise even while real spending power shrinks - a quiet imbalance that markets ignore. 4️⃣ 𝗟𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝗜𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲 • The Fed isn’t printing like 2020, but liquidity remains high through fiscal deficits. • The U.S. is adding roughly $1.8 trillion in new debt a year. • That money flows through markets, keeping prices inflated even when real demand weakens. 5️⃣ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗻’𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 Fewer jobs → less spending → more debt/liquidity → higher stocks → weaker currency → repeat. It looks stable - until it isn’t. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀?

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

Stocks crash hard

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Markets keep rising

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Everything holds steady

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