Gavin O'Luanaigh @GEMOLFund: "Dear Fellow Investors, I hope you..."

United Kingdom

Dear Fellow Investors, I hope you are all well even though the markets are extremely turbulent at the moment. As well as a general update we will also focus on a few topics this month in terms of the Iran War, Private Credit Crisis and also updates on Gold and Silver positions. We have altered our portfolio a little based on the belief that the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked for some time, thus the flow of oil will not go back to normal within the next 30 days or so and thus $OIL will rise and Stocks, $GOLD $SILVER and Crypto will fall. Even if the US pulls out shortly this still does not mean the Strait will suddenly open and Iran will want to either drive Oil higher to destabilise US and the World economy or charge a toll on ships passing through as reparations for the damage caused. March Summary March -4.83% 2026 -2.72% 2 Yr Return +42.02% All Time Return +241.08% Risk Level 3 March Trades 45 Successful Trades 49% Annualised Return 24.58% Dividend Yield 2.24% Total Cash 42% All stats are taken from bullaware.com/etoro/GEMOLFund for open and transparent viewing. Selected Top Gainers in March $BP.L (BP) +22.39% $CNE.L (Capricorn Energy PLC) +16% $OXY (Occidental Petroleum Corp) (Occidental Petroleum Corp) + 13.46% $SHEL.L (Shell PLC) (Shell PLC) +11.70% Worst Losers Easy Jet -18.04% SIL -18.09% Barrick Gold - 16.03% Newmont - 13.16% We sold off some of our losing stocks and replaced them with Oil Stocks for the time being. We had been accumulating oil stocks however have increased this. The plan is to sell when it really does seem that the crisis is over in a month or so and then switch these funds back to stocks and Gold and Silver. I am not too bothered about hitting the absolute top but feel when the crisis is over we will have a period of euphoria for stocks temporarily with buys of $MSFT (Microsoft) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $GOOG (Alphabet) and $CRWD (Crowdstrike Holdings) on the cards, before potentially seeing a major pullback if it hasn't already happened before the end of the war. So markets are entering a really fragile phase, with multiple macro pressures building simultaneously. I want to outline three key themes currently shaping my positioning and forward outlook. Iran War First, the escalation in tensions surrounding Iran as mentioned is having a direct impact on global energy markets. Any disruption in Middle Eastern supply chains immediately tightens oil availability, pushing prices higher. Rising oil acts as a tax on the global economy, increasing costs for transport, production, and consumers. Historically, sustained oil price increases tend to compress corporate margins and slow economic growth. As inflationary pressure re-emerges through energy, central banks are also less able to ease policy aggressively. This combination of higher costs and tighter financial conditions is typically negative for equities, and we are beginning to see that risk reflected in market sentiment. Due to this we as mentioned repositioned our portfolio. Private Credit Market There is a growing concern around the private credit market. Over the past decade, private credit has expanded rapidly, filling the gap left by traditional banks. However, much of this lending has occurred in a low-rate environment with relatively loose underwriting standards. As rates have stayed higher for longer, refinancing risk is increasing, particularly for highly leveraged companies. If defaults begin to rise, liquidity in this less transparent market could tighten quickly. The risk here is not just isolated losses, but a broader spillover into public markets as investors reassess credit risk and reduce exposure. Already withdrawals are being limited by Blackrock which isn't a good sign. Gold and Silver We are also seeing weakness in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which may appear counterintuitive given geopolitical risk. One key factor is the need for certain governments to generate USD liquidity. With constraints on oil exports or revenues, some countries may be forced to sell gold reserves to fund domestic spending and stabilize their economies. This creates downward pressure on gold prices, which in turn impacts silver due to its strong correlation. Rather than viewing this as a negative, I see it as a potential accumulation opportunity. My current strategy is to dollar cost average into Gold and Silver as it falls and then at around the $50 level for Silver and with Gold closer to $3,500, where I believe long-term value becomes really compelling, I will probably really load up at that point. I still feel Gold and Silver will go much higher as the USD depreciates along with other world currencies due to over borrowing and not running a sustainable economy. Overall, the combination of rising energy costs, tightening credit conditions, and forced liquidity events creates a challenging environment for risk assets in the short to medium term. I remain cautious on equities and focused on identifying opportunities like Oil and Gold and Silver when they allow attractive entry points. Take Care, Gavin @GEMOLFund

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.