La settimana si apre con un fattore che può cambiare il tono dei mercati: l’escalation in Medio Oriente.
Prima dell’apertura, le aspettative stanno già prendendo forma: petrolio e oro attesi in rialzo, dollaro più forte e futures USA indicati in calo.
Non è ancora la reazione “ufficiale” di Wall Street: è il modo in cui il rischio viene prezzato prima che si formi il prezzo.
Per un investitore, in queste fasi la bussola resta semplice:
se l’energia resta alta, torna centrale il tema inflazione e i tassi diventano più sensibili.
Se invece la tensione rientra, il mercato tende a riassorbire lo shock e torna alla selezione.
Io non cerco di indovinare il titolo del giorno.
Guardo a come si assorbe il rischio e resto fedele alla struttura.
Vedremo come evolve con l’apertura.
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