Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 13 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 Several..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 13 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 Several stocks in the portfolio have declined as a result of the war in Iran, among them the following: 1. Vonovia, a German residential real estate landlord, fell 20%. Higher oil prices have pushed up near-term inflation expectations, leading investors to anticipate tighter policy from the European Central Bank. This has been negative for Vonovia, as rising rates tend to weigh on real estate valuations. Following the recent decline, the shares trade at a 50% discount to the value of the company’s underlying property portfolio. 2. Eurazeo, a French investment company, fell 10% amid concerns about a potential European recession, the company's exposure to the software industry, and broader pressures in private equity markets. The shares now trade at a discount of more than 50% to net asset value, levels last seen during the 2011–2012 European sovereign debt crisis. The long-term average discount is closer to 20%. 3. Adidas declined 15%. Weak results from competitor Nike, though widely seen as company-specific, hurt the stock, while higher interest rates have raised concerns about consumer spending. The shares now trade on around 15x forward earnings, the lowest valuation since at least 2013. 4. Pernod Ricard fell 15%. The company is perceived as relatively highly leveraged and therefore more exposed to rising interest rates. Weak results from competitor Diageo shortly before the war also weighed on sentiment. The shares now trade at below 12x 2026 earnings, the lowest level in at least 15 years. 5. Deutsche Bank declined 10%. Banks are sensitive to the economic outlook, which could deteriorate if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists. In addition, concerns remain around Deutsche’s exposure to private credit. The shares trade at 8.4x expected earnings, below the 10-12x a normal bank can command in normal times. In my view, valuations across the portfolio remain attractive. That said, this is not a risk-free positioning. An end to the war would likely support a recovery in the names above and others in the portfolio, while a prolonged conflict could lead to further downside. At present, equity markets appear to be pricing in de-escalation, whereas oil markets remain more cautious. The coming weeks should clarify which market proves more accurate. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Cash has been reduced to 10%. The portfolio is now 90% invested in stocks that have fallen as a result of the war. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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