$BTC SIGNS OF A BOTTOM OR JUST A FALSE ALARM?
Key levels to watch as the market searches for direction
After yesterday’s drop, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilisation, but the big question remains:
👉 Was that the local low, or is something else coming?
Let’s break down the structure, the levels that matter, and the macro context shaping this week.
🔍 BTC Price Structure: Where We Stand Now
The chart tells a simple story:
BTC is trying to stabilize, but it’s not out of danger yet.
Here’s what happened:
• On Friday 21st, BTC rebounded from the capitulation candle.
• The bounce hit resistance at $93,700 and got rejected sharply.
• Yesterday (Dec 1st) we retested $84,000, forming a new higher low, but the reaction wasn’t strong enough to call it a reversal.
Right now, BTC is balancing on a thin line.
📌 Bullish scenario (reclaiming strength)
BTC needs to:
1. Push back toward $93.7k,
2. Break above that level,
3. Build a proper bottom structure.
Only then can we talk about a constructive recovery.
📌 Bearish scenario (new weakness incoming)
If BTC closes a lower low below $84k, the structure breaks.
The next key zone becomes:
➡️ $76k–$78k
A strong demand area, but also a psychological stress point for the market.
📰 Macro Update: Fed, Markets and What’s Next
A few catalysts worth watching this week:
⭐ 1. Quantitative Tightening officially ended
The Fed concluded QT as scheduled.
A pivot toward increased liquidity is now on the horizon, maybe quietly already underway.
⭐ 2. FOMC coming next week
Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut.
What happens after will depend on:
• inflation,
• jobs data,
• consumer spending.
These three will dictate how sustainable a December cut really is.
⭐ 3. Equity markets shaky
• Monday: U.S. indices slid modestly (Dow at –0.9%).
• Futures this morning suggest a more positive open.
• Europe also slightly green, but gains need confirmation.
⭐ 4. Crypto market recovering today
Yesterday was red across the board.
Today looks different:
• Several altcoins are up multiple percentage points,
• Total market cap +1.6%.
Signs of rotation, but too early to call a trend.
🧭 What I’m Watching This Week
Three signals matter more than the rest:
• $84k support → must hold to avoid deeper downside
• $93.7k resistance → key trigger for a market-wide mood shift
• Macro catalysts → FOMC expectations and liquidity flows
BTC is in a constructive but fragile spot.
The next move will depend on whether buyers step in with conviction, or whether the market needs one more washout before recovering.
... Show More
IMO the FOMC meeting next week is the real dominant catalyst determining the next phase of this cycle. With a rate cut already priced in, the real danger is the forward guidance . Until Wednesday press conference, expect the range between $85k and $95k to be a volatile testing ground... Show More
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Tue Jan 20 2026 06:10:06 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
