Marco Benvenuti @M4arco89: " 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 & 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲:..."

Italy

𝐔.𝐒. 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 & 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐌𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫? 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 • The federal government shutdown has reached day 36, the longest on record. Discretionary spending is frozen, but Treasury auctions and debt payments continue. CBO estimates a $7–14bn GDP impact, depending on how long it lasts. • The Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the end of October and officially ended QT, but kept a data-dependent tone — no “December put” guaranteed. 📉 𝐖𝐚𝐬 𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲’𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥-𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝? • Wall Street closed lower: S&P −1.2%, Nasdaq ~−2%. The main driver was stretched valuations (AI/megacap) and warnings from several bank CEOs about a possible short-term pullback. 𝐓𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰: this looks more like a re-pricing of earnings and valuations than a liquidity-driven move or a “shutdown effect.” 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 & 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 — 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐤? • Indirectly, yes. The shutdown delays government spending (less cash injection into reserves). If the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance (TGA) through new issuance, it can drain liquidity. The impact on bank reserves depends on who buys the debt (money-market funds via ON RRP vs. banks). Overall, the shutdown-liquidity channel exists but is not the main driver behind this week’s sell-off. 𝐍𝐞𝐚𝐫-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 • Base case: episodic volatility around guidance and macro data; selective equity exposure (quality, margins, free cash flow). • Shutdown: as long as it remains temporary, the impact is sentiment/liquidity-driven and manageable; risk rises only if it overlaps with heavy issuance and a nearly-empty RRP. 𝐌𝐲 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡 Staying pro-growth but disciplined, positions within bands/guardrails, doing micro-rebalancing on volatility — no intraday chasing. 💬 What’s the real story for you: valuations & guidance, or liquidity & the shutdown? 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳: 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭/𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬, 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭. $BTC $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $SPX500 $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $MSFT (Microsoft) $GOLD $ETH