Recap & Radar: The Jobs Miss Flips the Script
Dear copiers, investors and followers,
In this Recap & Radar, I’ll briefly cover what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio.
The jobs report changed the picture
For weeks, the market feared the next Fed move would be a hike. Thursday's June jobs report cut against that. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs, about half of what was expected. A weak labor market gives the Fed room to wait rather than tighten. Rate hike odds fell, the dollar slid, and short-term yields eased. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added to the shift, striking a softer tone at the ECB forum in Sintra and saying inflation risks had eased.
This matters for $GOLD. For months, gold was one of the big losers, pressured by a strong dollar and rising hike bets. The jobs miss reversed that channel. Gold rebounded and posted its first weekly gain since May. I read this as the macro logic of my structural position reasserting itself, not as a one-week trade. The move is a counter-trend bounce inside a larger correction, so I am not calling the low—only noting that the pressure has eased.
$OIL and the Strait
Oil stayed weak. WTI settled below $70 for the first time since the war began, down close to 20 percent over two weeks. The Strait of Hormuz is normalizing, flows are recovering, and the risk premium keeps deflating. The truce is still fragile and governance disputes are unresolved, but for now, the market treats supply as returning. Lower oil also cools inflation, which reinforces the case for a patient Fed.
The week ahead
It is a quieter calendar after the payrolls shock. The FOMC minutes land on Wednesday and will show how divided the committee was at the hawkish June meeting. The bigger event is outside this week: the June CPI on July 14. Between a softer labor market and cheaper oil, the disinflation story has support, but one weak print does not settle the debate. I stay patient.
Ad maiora
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to take on risk. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Good reminder that reacting to every macro headline usually costs more than it saves — staying anchored to the plan through noisy weeks like this is what actually compounds over years.... Show More
Great recap! Just started copying your portfolio with $1,000. Really confident in your strategy and analysis. Excited to finally step into the investing world with you. Let’s do this! 📈... Show More
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Tue Aug 11 2026 02:14:15 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
