Decio Nocerino @decionocerino: "Back in March, everyone was..."

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Italy

Back in March, everyone was scared — that was the signal. I said “buy the dip” when sentiment was at its worst. Since then, markets didn’t just recover… they snapped back hard 📈 Here’s the part most people miss: nothing magical happened. The same companies, the same fundamentals. Only emotions changed. Fear got replaced by euphoria — and suddenly prices look “expensive” again. This cycle isn’t new. It never is. What changes is how intense emotions feel in the moment. But the opportunity? It always hides in discomfort, not excitement. Long-term investors don’t wait for clarity. They position when probabilities are in their favor — even when it feels wrong. The takeaway is simple: volatility isn’t the risk. Your reaction to it is ⚡ If you zoom out to a 7–10 year horizon, these swings aren’t threats. They’re entry points. So here’s my question: When the next dip comes, will you trust the process — or your emotions? $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $MSFT (Microsoft) $AAPL (Apple) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF)

Decio Nocerino

Italy

6mo

📊 March has been brutal. But history says something different. The S&P 500 has now posted five consecutive weeks of losses. The Nasdaq entered correction territory — down ~13% from its October peak. The Dow joined it last Friday, closing below 45,200. Year to date, my portfolio reflects a -13.1% performance. The catalyst is no mystery. On February 28, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered one of the most significant geopolitical shocks since 2022. Brent crude surged past $110/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz — a corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — has seen severe disruption. Inflation expectations are climbing. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a rate hike by year-end, reversing months of cut expectations. 🌍 My honest view: this is not over. I expect an additional 10–15% drawdown from current levels, potentially by September, as the oil shock transmits into corporate margins, consumer confidence erodes further (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 53.3, near multi-year lows), and the Fed shifts from dovish to neutral-to-hawkish. ⚖️ And yet — this is precisely the moment disciplined investors are built for. Not every stock is equally exposed. Large-cap U.S. equities tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have already priced in significant macro risk. The RSI on both $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) is deep in oversold territory. The price-to-forward-earnings compression on quality tech names is now approaching levels seen in October 2022 — the last true buying opportunity in this cycle. Today I deployed approximately 3% of my total portfolio value, split between SPY (S&P 500 broad exposure) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100), initiating a disciplined dollar-cost-averaging program at these levels. 🔹 This is not a call that the bottom is in. It is a recognition that over a 7–10 year horizon, the entry price today will almost certainly look attractive in retrospect. Howard Marks said it best: “You can’t predict. You can prepare.” The war will end. Oil will normalize. Technology adoption curves — AI, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure — are structural, not cyclical. These tailwinds don’t reverse because of a geopolitical quarter. I will continue adding in tranches if the market gives me lower prices. If it doesn’t, I’ll have bought at a good level. Either way, the strategy remains unchanged. What’s your current positioning? Are you holding cash waiting for a bottom, or deploying gradually into the correction? $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MSFT (Microsoft) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.