To my copiers,
In my last post, I said we were at or within 5% of the lows in BTC. I now believe the low is in. My base case is that we either:
➡️ put in a higher low (HL) on the higher timeframes, OR
➡️ see a swing failure pattern (SFP) at ~$80K
Why?
➡️ the RORO tool is showing the highest macro Risk-On reading in months
➡️ selling in BTC has subsided, based on various on-chain and CEX data
➡️ selling pressure in alts slowed several days earlier
➡️ my BTC ETF flows indicator has bottomed and is starting to turn up, implying ETF buyers are beginning to step back into the market
➡️ The DXY and US 10Y yield are trending lower (good for risk assets), and equities moved higher on news that Kevin Hassett is now the front-runner for FED chair. Markets read this as a more dovish stance because he has argued for prioritising GDP growth over strict inflation control (similar to Bessent and Trump), tax cuts, deregulation, and heavy capex for AI, semis and automation.
This is positive for my forward-looking macro outlook and adds conviction to my thesis for a bullish 2026 driven by:
✅ a supportive macro regime
✅ lower geopolitical risk
✅ a dovish, pro-growth FED
I am not focused on the day-to-day noise on the charts. I care about how the next 6 months play out, and on that front I am confident.
What I've shared is not necessarily a fresh bull catalyst, but it is further confirmation of my existing thesis and that a "2026 bear market for crypto" is, in my view, directionally wrong👌
I'll reshare this at new BTC (and portfolio) ATHs in 2026 ✌🏽
Disclaimer: Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results
$BTC$AUS200$NSDQ100$UK100$GER40... Show More
I think we can see a bounce next month than drop. I think the cycle will happend. Because cycles make crypto more profitable for who knows to play them so it makes some sence if it's forced to happend by wales. Myself i'm not against the cycle than we can make another great bull run next time... Show More
Agree. No gann fans required. Just money movements. But I reckon that the cycles are out bec of institutional adoption. Also, the rise of ETFs will amplify volatility as most ETF buyers aren’t die-hard crypto investors who would HODL. Since there’s no underlying asset with crypto, the valuations are... Show More
Even if we see turbulence along the way, keeping a 6-month+ perspective seems like the smarter frame to view things through. Your outlook toward 2026 is well thought out, and it’s great to see analysis that rises above the day-to-day fluctuations.
... Show More
Let's be honest, my copy trading line with you has taken a hard beating in recent weeks... It's going to be a long road to recovery, but let's hope that the adjustments you've made to your RORO tool will at least make up for this loss.... Show More
I also see a bullish scenario until the end of the year and the beginning of next year, but I am very skeptical about the second half of 2026.... Show More
Let’s see step by step, we can not rule out that a head & shoulders is possibly forming, targeting 105k before continuing, validating the thesis that ATH is in!
Key is adapting to different scenarios :)... Show More
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Fri Jan 23 2026 08:36:59 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
