Moric Kocsa Pillmann @MoricPortfolio: "👀Flat week - we closed..."

Hungary

👀Flat week - we closed at 0.0%. The $SPX500 finished ~+0.3%, while the $NSDQ100 was down ~-0.5%. Worth noting: the semiconductor index $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) finished ~-5.0% down - so despite our tech-concentrated exposure and increased tech holdings, we still outperformed the major tech benchmarks again. ⚠️𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: 🖥️𝐌𝐞𝐠𝐚-𝐜𝐚𝐩 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 - 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐝 --> $MSFT (Microsoft) and $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) rallied on stronger cloud revenue, while $META (Meta Platforms Inc) fell on an earnings miss and softer guidance amid elevated capex; $AAPL (Apple) also declined on cost concerns and a cautious outlook --> Broader picture is strong: over halfway through earnings season, 86% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates with an average upside surprise of 31% - Q2 growth forecasts revised up to 37% from 22% --> The market has shifted from rewarding AI spending to scrutinizing AI capex - in my view this is healthy either way: (i) it forces more discipline, moving sentiment away from euphoric "spend on everything AI" toward a cost-conscious, returns-driven approach, and (ii) it separates companies spending on clearly value-adding AI activity from those spending where the market doesn't yet see the value - the latter now have a real chance to beat expectations once that value becomes visible to investors 🏦𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐯𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐬𝐧'𝐭 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐨𝐮𝐬 --> FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, as expected - but three regional presidents dissented in favor of a hike, signaling a more hawkish stance - financial outlets see September as a meeting for a possible hike if oil prices or inflation broaden again --> Chair Warsh's tone was read as rather firm on inflation, unclear on timing 🧠𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: The market is no longer trading on "is AI real" - it's trading on "who's actually monetizing it, and how". The smart AI trade will be very beneficial; however, AI as a theme is not moving the needle anymore. 💭 Staying selective in a market that's rewarding execution over spending headlines seems to be paying off - our relative resilience this week despite heavy tech/semi exposure is a good sign. Let me know your thoughts or if you have any questions in the comments! Best, Moric

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.