Hello everyone, and welcome to the new copiers. An update on current market developments and earnings.
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The longest government shutdown in US history ended on November 12th and it lasted for 43days. Thus the White House potentially canceled what was expected to be the worst BLS report this year. This also means the federal reserve is flying blind during critical time. There have been some wild (35% - 80%) swings at he chance for a FED rate cut in December. As of right now, it is expected to cut with about 80% chance. The issue for the market will be that the FED will likely be hawkish on their statements for the future in order to try and keep inflation in check.
With the lack of BLS report the ADP jobs report became more of a focus than usual. They provide weakly changes now and they reported a loss of 13500 jobs weekly for the past 4 weeks vs its prior 4-week report of 2500 jobs lost - an acceleration of job losses. Octobers CPI will also not be released due to government shutdown.
Gold and silver briefly lost some of the shine during October sell-off but have since regained momentum specially the silver already hitting new all time highs.
With scarce data there are 2 paths that could unfold for the future, either we hit a recession and normalization of prices, or what now seems to be the more likely option - we will continue to pump the markets higher and higher, maintaining illusion everthing is ok and normal for as long as possible destroying the fiat currency meanwhile.
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Nvidia reported EPS of $1.30 vs. $1.25 expected and revenue of $57.01 billion vs. $54.92 billion. Pretty much a normal beat for Nvidia, but the stock proceeded to sell off another 5% after the earnings, even though it had already fallen ~10% from the end of October until the earnings day. Some concerns were raised over the possibility of circular financing going on with Nvidia and most of the other AI behemoths, with a bunch of companies taking on massive debt to build data centers for future demand, possibly being the weakest link in a potential market slowdown. The fear of a domino effect between these AI infrastructure, AI chip, and AI software companies has put a ceiling on Nvidia's stock price for now, actually bringing its stock valuation to a substantially cheaper PE ratio than we are used to lately.
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Tesla continues to show pretty weak earnings, but itβs share price continues to push higher. Investors seem to be betting everything on robotaxis and optimus robots, not caring about the overall numbers which were a miss on EPS of $0.50 vs $0.54 expected. And a beat on revenue of $28.10 billion vs. $26.37 expected. Though that revenue is up only 12% from a year earlier. Net income is down 37% from a year earlier. I think TSLA has become an indicator for the entire stock market sentiment.
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Microsoft reported an excellent EPS with $4.13 vs. $3.67 expected and revenue of $77.67 billion vs. $75.33 billion. Revenue grew 18% from a year ago period. Investors however reacted negatively right after earnings due to higher capital expenditures of ~35bil vs 30bil projected in the prior quarter. Stock is still down roughly ~5% since earnings and the end of October, but less so than Nvidia.
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Alphabet beat on revenue with $102.35 billion vs. $99.89 expected as well as EPS with $3.10 vs $2.33. Alphabet also keeps increasing its capital expenditure expectation, going from $75bil to $85 and now lastly $91-93bil. I must take some words back on their AI projects too, as their Gemini now has 650mil monthly active users and is great for picture creating. GOOG is also potentially going to compete with NVIDIA with its data-center chips and potentially capture up to 10% of NVIDIAβs revenue. Google is actually up 13% over the past month even as the indexes and other mega caps mostly sold off.
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Meta also beat on EPS and revenue with $7.25 vs. $6.69 and $51.24 billion vs. $49.41 billion expected. They reported a $15.93 billion tax charge which drove the share price sharply lower (-9%). They assured it is a one time tax payment and that due to Big beautiful bill they will now face less taxes than before. They too slightly raised expendature expectations by about ~2%. Meta is roughly flat over the last month which should be considered strong performance considering the broader market sell off.
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With the market being almost at 50/50 on a slowdown in one hand, and endless inflation of prices on the other, I remain cautious even longer. Thereβs a massive danger on both sides being invested fully or waiting out. So right in the middle is roughly where I remain. If this bull run continues for another 5-10 years we will see massive inflation yet again, I canβt see how assets can go up at such a crazy pace year after year and there being βonlyβ a 3% inflation.... Show More
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Sun Jan 25 2026 06:44:59 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
