Harry Harrison @HarryH1993: "Earnings Review 💸 Hope you’ve been..."

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Earnings Review 💸 Hope you’ve been having a great week! Earnings for $FOUR (Shift4 Payments Inc), $NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.), $MELI (MercadoLibre Inc) and $ROOT (Root Inc) are now out and all of them (arguably with the slight exception of $FOUR) were fantastic imo, especially Nubank’s, even if the share price reaction hasn’t been great. Updated earnings explorer with the results, just for a bit of fun for anyone that wants a more interactive way to go over the results 😅 - https://earnings-explorer.vercel.app Shift4 💳 Shift4 reported Q4 2025 results this morning (February 26), beating earnings estimates and capping a transformational year that included the acquisitions of Global Blue, SmartPay, and Bambora. The full shareholder letter is live but still being digested by the market. 🔵 Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.60, beating the $1.52 estimate by 5.26%; revenue was up $302 million from the same period a year ago 🔵 Q3 (most recent full quarter): Gross Revenue Less Network Fees (a key non-GAAP performance metric the company uses) of $589M (+61% YoY), end-to-end payment volume of $54.7B (+26% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $292M (+56% YoY) 🔵 Full-year 2025 guidance (as of Q3): GRLNF of $1.98–$2.02B (46–49% growth), adjusted EBITDA of $970–$985M (43–45% growth), adjusted FCF conversion above 50% 🔵 Board authorized a $1B share repurchase program — the largest in company history The stock is down 8% premarket though which doesn’t really seem justified imo, read more here - investors.shift4.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/293/shift4-announces-fourth-quarter-2025-results Nubank 🏦 Perhaps the best of a good bunch here and an amazing Q4 for the company. Nu delivered a record-breaking quarter and year, cementing its status as the largest private financial institution in Brazil by customer count, with management framing 2026 as an inflection year for global expansion including a conditional U.S. bank charter approval. 🟣 Q4 revenue: $4.9B (record); Q4 net income: $894.8M (+50% YoY); Q4 ROE: 33% (all-time high) 🟣 FY 2025 revenue: $16.3B (+45% YoY); FY net income: $2.9B vs. $2.0B in 2024 🟣 131M total customers globally, adding 17M net new in 2025 (+15% YoY); activity rate of 83% 🟣 Monthly Average Revenue Per Active Customer (ARPAC) reached $15 in Q4 (+27% YoY); cost to serve per active customer remained below $1 🟣 Total deposits: $41.9B (+29% YoY); total credit portfolio: $32.7B (+40% YoY) More here for anyone interested - www.investidores.nu/financials/results-center/ MercadoLibre 🛍️ MELI delivered a top-line beat but an earnings miss, as heavy investments in free shipping, logistics, and credit expansion compressed margins. Wall Street largely viewed the margin pressure as a deliberate investment cycle, with 23 analysts rating the stock a buy or strong buy. 🟡 Q4 revenue: $8.76B (+44.6% YoY), beating estimates of $8.49B; GAAP EPS of $11.03 missed the $11.44 consensus by 3.6% 🟡 Q4 adjusted EBITDA: $1.13B (12.9% margin); operating margin of 10.1%, down from 13.5% a year earlier 🟡 FY 2025 revenue: $28.89B vs. $20.78B in 2024; FY net income: $1.99B 🟡 Q4 total payment volume: $83.7B (+42% YoY); GMV: $19.9B (+36.8% YoY) 🟡 Credit portfolio surged 90% to $12.5B; fintech monthly active users grew 28% to 78M; advertising revenue up 67% YoY (FX-neutral) Full results available here - investor.mercadolibre.com/sec-filings Root Insurance 🚗 Root's CEO called 2025 "another strong year" with the company exiting in what management described as the strongest position in its history, though it warned that planned growth investments will likely result in lower net income in 2026. 🟠 FY 2025 revenue growth: 29% YoY; net income: $40M (+30% YoY); adjusted EBITDA: $132M (up from $112M in 2024) 🟠 FY gross written premium: $1.5B (+16% YoY); net combined ratio: 98.2% 🟠 Q4 gross written premium: $361.6M (+9% YoY); Q4 net income: $5.3M (down $17M YoY due to deliberate partnership and R&D investments) 🟠 Policies in force grew to 481,869 at year-end, up from 414,862 a year earlier; cash position of $689.9M 🟠 Management guided for lower full-year 2026 net income as Root accelerates investment in distribution, independent agent integrations, and connected-vehicle partnerships with Toyota and Hyundai Read more here - ir.joinroot.com/financials-filings/quarterly-results Conclusion 📝 So weirdly, despite the poor performance of the share prices, I think this earning season has been perhaps one of the best I’ve seen for the companies we hold. I think most of them beat expectations with a few pretty much inline but I don’t think any did much worse than what they expected. The reports of $LMND (Lemonade Inc.) $SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc) and $NU in particular were fantastic and made me more bullish than ever on the companies. We still have $BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc) to come on Saturday which will be a good bellwether for the health of the US economy but is unlikely to have a huge impact on the portfolio directly. Thanks and please leave a comment below if you have any questions! 😃 Harry