Tobias Reily
United Kingdom
๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—™๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€: ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ: ๐Ÿ‘‘๐Ÿ›’๐—ฆ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป๐˜€ ๐Ÿงฎ๐Ÿ”๐—ฃ๐—–๐—˜ ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ›๏ธ ๐—–๐—œ๐—•๐—– ๐‘ญ๐’Š๐’๐’Œ ๐‘บ๐’‚๐’š๐’” ๐‘บ๐’๐’—๐’†๐’“๐’†๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’ ๐‘พ๐’†๐’‚๐’๐’•๐’‰ ๐‘ญ๐’–๐’๐’…๐’” ๐‘ฉ๐’๐’–๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’• ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐‘ซ๐’Š๐’‘, ๐‘บ๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’๐’‚๐’๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐‘บ๐’•๐’†๐’‚๐’…๐’š ๐‘ณ๐’๐’๐’ˆ ๐‘ป๐’†๐’“๐’Ž ๐‘ช๐’๐’๐’‡๐’Š๐’…๐’†๐’๐’„๐’† ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ”ธ Larry Fink on 4th December said there are "a number of sovereign funds" that are standing by and buying bitcoin incrementally as the price has fallen from the 126k peak, adding that they bought more in the 80k range and are building long term positions. ๐Ÿ”ธ Sovereign wealth funds were revealed to be active buyers of Bitcoin during the recent market plunge, stepping in while prices were falling and sentiment was shaken. Larry Fink of BlackRock commented that these large state backed investors were accumulating rather than retreating, which to me is a strong signal that long term conviction in Bitcoin remains intact even during sharp corrections. When buyers of that scale move quietly during fear it often tells its own story about where confidence really sits. ๐Ÿ”ธ It is always interesting to watch how major institutional players behave at moments when retail investors hesitate. Large pools of capital tend to use periods of weakness to position for the future, and their accumulation can provide a level of support that becomes visible only after the dust settles. That behaviour has repeatedly helped form the base for later recoveries in the crypto market. ๐Ÿ”ธ If this kind of buying from sovereign wealth funds and other deep pocketed institutions continues it could serve as a foundation for renewed strength in the months ahead. These investors operate with very long horizons and their actions often shape the broader trend long before it appears on most charts. I will be watching closely because their involvement at this stage of the cycle could prove to be very meaningful. ๐‘ฒ๐’†๐’š ๐‘ท๐‘ช๐‘ฌ ๐‘น๐’†๐’‘๐’๐’“๐’• ๐‘จ๐’“๐’“๐’Š๐’—๐’†๐’” ๐’‚๐’” ๐‘ด๐’‚๐’“๐’Œ๐’†๐’•๐’” ๐‘พ๐’†๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰ ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐‘ท๐’‚๐’•๐’‰ ๐’๐’‡ ๐‘ญ๐’–๐’•๐’–๐’“๐’† ๐‘ฌ๐’‚๐’”๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ”ธ Today at 1:30 pm GMT the delayed United States PCE inflation report for September will finally be released and markets are preparing for a reaction. This report matters because PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and it gives traders a clearer view of whether the disinflation trend is holding or slipping. The last confirmed reading we have is for August which came in at 2.7% year on year. Analysts now expect the new print to rise slightly to around 2.8% year on year. Some analysts predict 2.9%, but Goldman Sachs estimates it at precisely 2.85%. ๐Ÿ”ธ If today's number comes in at or above that 2.9% expectation it would suggest that inflation is not cooling as quickly as hoped. That would likely push investors to scale back expectations for further rate cuts next year or at least delay the timing of those cuts. On the other hand if PCE lands below the 2.9% mark or better yet shows a clear step down from August's 2.7% pace then the market will probably see that as confirmation that the inflation trend is back on track. That would strengthen the case for additional easing in 2026 and could lift risk assets. ๐Ÿ”ธ So the threshold is simple. A reading below expectations increases the chance that the Federal Reserve feels confident enough to lower rates again. A reading that comes in hot does the opposite. With the print delayed and anticipation rising the reaction at 1:30 pm GMT could be meaningful across equities bonds and crypto as traders reassess the path of monetary policy for the year ahead. ๐‘บ๐’๐’๐’Š๐’… ๐‘ฌ๐’‚๐’“๐’๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ๐’” ๐’‡๐’“๐’๐’Ž ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐‘ช๐’‚๐’๐’‚๐’…๐’Š๐’‚๐’ ๐‘ฐ๐’Ž๐’‘๐’†๐’“๐’Š๐’‚๐’ ๐‘ฉ๐’‚๐’๐’Œ ๐’๐’‡ ๐‘ช๐’๐’Ž๐’Ž๐’†๐’“๐’„๐’† ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ”ธ Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce delivered a strong fourth quarter earnings report, with net income rising to about 2.18 billion Canadian dollars from 1.88 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of 2.21 per share came in ahead of expectations and revenue climbed to 7.58 billion, showing solid momentum across the bank. Provisions for credit losses increased to 605 million, but that was largely seen as continued prudence rather than a sign of deterioration. ๐Ÿ”ธ The bank also raised its quarterly dividend from 97 cents to 1.07, which the market interpreted as a clear vote of confidence from management. Shares moved higher as investors reacted to the earnings beat and the payout increase. Capital markets was the standout performer again, with strong double digit growth, while the United States commercial and wealth businesses also contributed meaningfully. ๐Ÿ”ธ Overall the results underline that CIBC is using its diversified business mix to drive earnings through a complex environment, while still building credit buffers. For income focused holders this combination of growing profits and a higher dividend is exactly the kind of steady progress you want from a major Canadian bank. Thanks for reading! $BTC $CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) $NSDQ100 $ETH $SPX500
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