Tobias Reily @orbitalnewt: "𝗥𝗧𝗬 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀..."

United Kingdom

𝗥𝗧𝗬 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱: 🔸 Good evening everyone. I want to show again the correlation between altcoins and the Russell2000 which is a stock market index that tracks 2000 smaller publicly traded US companies, and it is widely used as a gauge of investor risk appetite because these smaller firms tend to move more sharply when market sentiment changes. We are clearly seeing a frustrating divergence happening right now as RTY goes flying into price discovery and altcoins continue to underperform. 🔸 Firstly, graphs below explained: Blue line: Russell2000 Red and Green Candle Chart: TOTAL3 (Altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Eth) Green line: Bitcoin Dominance in %. 🔸 While the altcoin market does not give us decades of history to work with, what we do have shows a fairly consistent relationship: altcoins tend to loosely track the Russell. More importantly, when the Russell breaks into new highs or forms impulsive higher highs, altcoins have historically followed with their own strong upside moves. 🔸 I've highlighted examples of this on the chart. On 2 November 2020, it took roughly two weeks for altcoins to break out after the Russell surged. In another example around 28 October 2024, when the Russell entered new highs, altcoins took seven days to respond impulsively, by which time the Russell had already reached near-term highs. These delays show that the correlation is real but not always instantaneous. 🔸 I’ve also marked rectangles on the chart showing periods where we saw exactly the kind of divergence we are experiencing now. Each of those previous instances eventually resolved with altcoins catching up to the Russell's move. 🔸 For the Bitcoin Dominance, the orange circles show you the moment that dominance dropped violently and altcoins made amazing parabolic moves in the past. As RTY is about to presumably go higher into price discovery, or indeed chop around at these levels for a bit, we should see altcoins bounce from that higher time frame support bar that you can see us sitting at, and dominance should also drop from it's highs just like the previous two cycles. 🔸 So yes, we have a sizable divergence at the moment, but it has only been in place since 17 November, and history shows that these disconnects often resolve with a lag rather than a trend break. 🔸 Once investors begin to appreciate that what used to be a four year cycle may now be stretching into a five year cycle due to the liquidity backdrop, we could see renewed interest in altcoins as they lift out of this support zone. 🔸 Our V bottom on RTY is extremely similar to 2020, and although we may not get the stimulus of yesteryears, we are moving into a period of QE and I do believe we will get more rate cuts in 2026 than officials estimated yesterday. A bit lengthy I know, but thanks for reading. $RTY $NSDQ100 $BTC $ETH $FET

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