Mentioned
Kenvue Inc
KVUE
0.05 (0.28%)
17.80
17.81
Gabriel Miranda
Switzerland
4m
KVUE – Why I Took the Trade I went long $KVUE (Kenvue Inc) yesterday during the ugly -7% session. Took two legs one at 17.83 and another at 17.11 giving me an average entry of 17.47 Before pulling the trigger I went straight to the option chain. • Looked at the October weeklies, roughly a 30-day window. • Backed out the near-ATM implied vol sitting around low-to-mid 30s. • Ran a quick barrier calc: • Odds of a print at $18.20 within a month came out around 60–70 %. • Odds of tagging $16.00 were only 25–30 %. That’s a pretty clear skew. The market was saying an upside test is more likely than another leg down, even after the selloff. Combining with other factors that was enought for me to step in. During the session there where even further price pression, ending in 16.97 at the close. Overnight we got exactly what the math hinted at: KVUE traded up to ~$17.70 in after-hours. I reran the numbers off that price: • $18.20 touch probability jumps to ~75–80 %. • $16.00 touch still stuck around ~25–30 %. Open interest lines up with the stats: big put OI parked at 16–16.5 as protection, and a wall of calls up near 19–20 acting as supply. For me that’s the trade: the options market is basically laying out a map, upside probe likely, sustained break much less so. I’m leaning into that with short-dated call spreads / premium sales into strength. Anyone else also using option chain books to run probabilistically analysis for short term trades? Let me know your toughs. Of course this is not an investment advice, only showing the rational and interested to know if anyone else here is also using the Option chain Books into their models.
1 Mentioned
Kenvue Inc
KVUE
Kenvue Inc
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