Davide Marcotti @Dafne17: "Markets are closed, but crypto..."

United Arab Emirates

Markets are closed, but crypto never sleeps. Let's get ready for when the market reopens. Good morning legends ☀️ Weed out the noise. Here's your selection of the real key market movers of the last 24 hours 🌍 Macro 🔴🔴 July payrolls shocked with a 23,000 job loss against expectations of 83,000 gains, marking a sharp labor market inflection that forced traders to yank September rate hike bets off the table. 🟢 Unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% despite the job losses, though labor force participation hit its lowest in five years as discouraged workers exit the market. 🟢 Money markets now price no Fed hike until December at the earliest, a sharp dovish pivot from the 55% odds of a September hike just 24 hours ago. 🟠 Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it remains unclear whether the agreement will satisfy U.S. demands, keeping oil $OIL prices volatile. 🟢 Fed Chair Warsh told the ECB Forum that prices are too high, but emphasized open-mindedness on AI productivity gains as central banks reassess the inflation trajectory. 🟢🟢 The $SPX500 surged toward a fresh record and posted its best week since April as the jobs miss revived appetite for risk assets and crushed bond yields. ✅ in the portfolio 📈 Crypto 🟢 Bitcoin $BTC rallied to $65,143 following the July jobs miss as weakening employment data reduced the odds of further Fed tightening and boosted liquidity expectations. ✅ in the portfolio 🟢 Grayscale amended its Ethereum trust agreement to make near-full staking the default for its $1.6 billion $ETH ETF, unlocking yield for holders and closing the gap with competitors. ✅ in the portfolio 🔴 The CFTC warned prediction markets over gambling-style odds, signaling heightened regulatory scrutiny as crypto platforms expand into event-based betting products. 🔴 U.S. sanctions hit two crypto exchanges over Iran-linked funds, extending the Treasury's crackdown on platforms facilitating sanction-evading flows. 🟠 SharpLink opposed Ethereum's proposal to cut staking yield to zero, setting up a governance battle over tokenomics as the network weighs inflation versus security incentives. 🟢 Bitcoin hovered around $64,000 levels through the week as stablecoin inflows weakened, but Friday's jobs shock reignited debasement trades and sent crypto higher into the close. 🏦 TradFi 🟢🟢 Chip stocks bounced sharply as the semiconductor ETF surged over 7% for the week, with Nasdaq $NSDQ100 gaining 5.2% in its best weekly performance since April. ✅ in the portfolio 🟢 SpaceX rallied 12% on Friday after Argus upgraded the stock, citing growing optimism toward fundamentals after the company ended four straight weeks of declines. 🟢 Eli Lilly jumped over 6.5% after crushing Q2 earnings and raising full-year revenue guidance as demand for weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro continues to surge. 🟢 Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet collectively added nearly $1.5 trillion in market cap this week after stellar cloud and AI earnings showed hyperscalers are converting investments into revenue, not just promises. 🔴 WTI crude fell 5.7% to $75.77 after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. is in talks with Iran and a deal to reopen the Strait could happen within days, easing supply fears. 🔴 Amazon pulled back 2% after Jeff Bezos filed to sell around $4 billion worth of shares, though the stock had just eclipsed $3 trillion in market cap for the first time. 🤖 AI & Tech 🟢🟢 Microsoft crushed expectations with cloud revenue growing at a brisk pace, strong Copilot adoption, and no capex raise for 2026 unlike hyperscaler peers — NVDA customers converting AI spend into real revenue. ✅ in the portfolio 🟢 Wall Street is now rewarding AI companies that convert investments into revenue and profits rather than future promises, with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon impressing while Meta META, Apple, and Tesla face pressure over weaker AI execution. ✅ in the portfolio 🟢 Palantir notched its best day in over two years after posting blowout Q2 results that CEO Alex Karp described as otherworldly, as enterprise AI adoption accelerates. 🟢 Alibaba surged 4% after unveiling Qwen3.8-Max, one of the most powerful AI models in the world, as China's tech giants ramp up competition in the global AI race. 🟢 Cloud hyperscalers are pouring over $200 billion into AI infrastructure this year, with Amazon raising its 2026 capex outlook to $220 billion primarily for AWS and AI workloads. 🟢 Applied Materials earnings are due imminently as investors hunt for confirmation that the AI infrastructure buildout remains on track and chip equipment demand holds firm. The jobs miss just handed risk assets a liquidity reprieve — Fed hike fears vaporized overnight and the debasement trade is back on. @Tori , anything else I have missed? Stay sharp - follow if you want the key market movers in your feed every morning 🙏

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.