DeepFutureIRL @DeepFutureIRL: "Where we are in the..."

Ireland

Where we are in the cycle (Oct 2025) ? Late-bull, high-beta phase dynamics: BTC hit a new ATH around $126k last weekend, a classic late-cycle backdrop where leverage builds and spillovers from macro shocks hit hard. Yesterday looks like a de-risking + deleveraging break within that broader uptrend not a completed top (yet). As we get closer to the end Volatility picks up. Derivatives reset: After a blowout like $16–$19B in liquidations, markets often need days to weeks to re-balance: funding normalizes, open interest rebuilds more cautiously, and market makers arb dislocations. That argues for chop and base, not an immediate moonshot. My base case (next 1–4 weeks) Stabilize → range trade BTC defends a psychological $100k–$105k area while volatility bleeds lower, failed breakdowns get bought, but rallies fade near $118k–$122k until macro headlines cool. (This fits a “multi-step bottoming” after record liquidations.) Altcoins underperform on bounces. Into a deleveraging hangover, BTC tends to outperform, alts usually lag on the first rebound as liquidity and risk appetite rebuild. If ETF flows re-accelerate to the positive side, that gap can narrow later. Key swing factor. Easing of tariff rhetoric or fresh BTC/ETH ETF net inflows could flip momentum faster. Escalation (more tariffs/controls) or sustained ETF outflows would keep pressure on risk. A tougher trade stance or knock-on equity weakness can drive a second liquidity vacuum. Where We Are in the Cycle ? Right now, we’re ~18 months after the Bitcoin halving (April 2024) So, statistically, we’re either at the blow-off top or the pause before it. The $16–19 B in long liquidations is one of the largest in crypto history. Every time we’ve seen this type of flush (March 2020, May 2021, Aug 2023, March 2024), it reset leverage and allowed a new leg higher. ✅ Probability the flush clears the path for one more run is high. Funding on BTC perpetuals flipped negative for the first time since February, meaning traders are now net short or cautious. When that happens late-cycle, market makers often squeeze shorts before a real top forms. ✅ Contrarian setup for a rebound. Despite Trump’s TACO trades, global liquidity (M2 + reverse repo drawdown) hasn’t contracted meaningfully. The liquidity cycle and business cycle hasn't topped leaving room for another leg up. The Fed is still signalling rate cuts which historically fuels “final-wave speculation” across risk assets. ✅ Macro backdrop still supportive for one more leg. Probability Assessment Final push higher (BTC 130–150k, alts mania) - 60 % Cycle top already in (BTC ≈ 125k high) - 25 % Macro-driven deeper correction before new highs in 2026 - 15 % My thoughts If this is the final leg, it should unfold fast (6–10 weeks) with: BTC dominance staying firm early then alts exploding near the end. If the top is already in, you’ll see: BTC struggling to reclaim $120k BTC weekly closes below the 50 W Moving average = cycle over ETF flows staying negative Alts failing to bounce 50 %+ from lows $BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI

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