$BTC – Approaching a Strategic Buying Zone
Dear all,
Since I started trading on eToro, my main focus has been FOREX, occasionally complemented by positions in gold and major U.S. indices.
Over time, many followers and copiers have asked me about Bitcoin. While I firmly believe in its role as sound money and a store of value, I have refrained from offering cyclical analysis on BTC so far due to its relatively short historical data set and its well-known high volatility.
That said, the macroeconomic outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain, and I now believe it is time to start considering Bitcoin as a portfolio hedge.
Once we have sufficient data, I plan to initiate long-only positions in BTC (no leverage, no shorting). This will not be a simple “buy and hold” strategy: I will reduce or exit long positions if a significant correction appears likely (as we are seeing at the moment), but I will never go short.
In terms of allocation:
- Bitcoin may represent up to ~33% of the portfolio in nominal terms (unleveraged).
- The remaining positions will continue using leverage (typically ×10).
- This means the effective risk-weighted exposure to BTC will be around 10% of the total portfolio when fully deployed.
I am sharing this update now because Bitcoin is approaching a major multi-year buying zone. We are likely forming a cycle low in the coming weeks/months, followed by renewed upward pressure.
As shown in the attached chart, the potential accumulation zone lies between 65,000 and 75,000. The current cycle exhibits clear right translation, confirming the underlying bullish trend.
I will keep you updated as soon as I consider entry conditions are met.
Best regards,
José
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Es sind alle ihre Positionen im Minus. Das Einzige was konstant steigt sind die Gebühren. Am Ende des Jahres sind Sie wahrscheinlich bei minus 35% das sollte zu denken geben.... Show More Translate
That sounds like a very well-thought-out decision. It makes sense to add BTC now as a portfolio hedge given the macro uncertainty, especially since you come from FOREX.
The plan to allocate up to 33% (10% effective risk-weighted exposure) is prudent and flexible.
Good luck with that $65,000-$75,000... Show More
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Sun Jan 25 2026 09:27:23 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
