Lamanvj @Lamanvj: "▶️ November 29th, 2025 —..."

United Kingdom

▶️ November 29th, 2025 — $NATGAS Analytics This week, Natural gas dropped to the weekly low of 4.34 on Tuesday followed by a retest of the upper band at 4.73, before settling at 4.723 — a firm close that keeps bulls in control but shows moderation versus the parabolic November leg. RSI-14 sits at 62.86, down from 65 last week. Price action continues to hold a comfortable distance above structural support (EMA50=4.136, EMA100=3.851, EMA150=3.720). ⸻ Key Fundamentals (week vs last week) • Production: Dry gas output remained near ~110 Bcf/d, unchanged and still at record highs. • Consumption: Lower-48 demand averaged ~78–79 Bcf/d, a modest increase as early-winter heating load builds. Still not “true winter” levels. • LNG Exports: Flows stayed near ~17.3–17.4 Bcf/d, effectively maxed. LNG remains the only strong structural bull factor. • Storage: EIA (week ending Nov 22) reported a −11 Bcf withdrawal, slightly lower than expected but still the first clean sign of winter draws. Inventories remain ~3.5–4% above the five-year average. ⸻ Technical Levels Resistance: 4.73 (this week’s high), which marks slight short term descending trend with lower highs from the seasonal top of 4.83 (the second resistance). If this one breaks, my short term red trend is invalidated. 4.83 is followed by 5.00 psychological level and 5.20 prediction if weather panic accelerates Support: 4.34, 4.2, followed by 3.85–3.72 EMA100/150 cluster for deeper mean reversion Outlook NatGas remains in a controlled uptrend, but with RSI cooled and fundamentals still loose, price is increasingly dependent on weather to justify further upside. The next 10 days remain colder-than-normal across large parts of the Midwest and Northeast. The cold we see is supportive for 4.6–4.8 pricing. The cold we don’t see is what would be required to justify 5.0+ pricing as none of the major models (GFS/ECMWF) show a sustained Arctic outbreak, multi-week subfreezing block, strong PV displacement, or major freeze-off setup. HDD forecasts tick up, but not dramatically — more “early-winter cold” than “deep-winter cold.” • If models firm into a colder December, NG can take another attempt at 4.83 → 5.00. • If models flatten or warm, the natural correction path is 4.2 → 4.0 → EMA cluster. My personal bias is unchanged: The current “early-winter cold” is already priced in. Without a true Arctic signature NatGas continues to trade ahead of its fundamentals. A pullback toward 4.0–4.2 remains the most rational base case before the next real winter leg. ⸻ ▶️ Nathalie ($NATGAS volatility trading model) Week #48 update: + $7,300 Total earnings (+$50 this week): ▫️+ $4,000 Capital build up (to reach $7,000) ▫️+ $3,300 Nathalie’s earnings + $2,695 Nathalie’s refunds (-$335 this week) = $5,995 Nathalie’s net profit (Nathalie’s earnings + refunds, excl. capital build up) =❗️+85.6% vs $7k of assumed capital invested Current state: $NATGAS: 3,559 units short (11 sells); TP’d 4.6 sell and reclassified 4.66 sell as S10 $UNG (US Natural Gas): 662 units long ($1,500 strategic buys, 1,754 NG equivalent units); opened 2x $500 buys at 13.86 and 13.66 ▶️ Lookahead: I managed to hedge my ladder with some UNG buys. The key levels now present an integrated picture of NG+UNG So, my NG shorts now are at 3,560 units. My UNG buys in NG equivalent are ~1,800 units, which halves my exposure. For upcoming few months (high fees season), I aim to minimize shorts exposure below 4.5 (8 positions, everything I can close I will) and use UNG as the money making instrument until refunds season starts. ▶️ Current key levels (no change): S=sell, B=buy; ▫️ open now (actual price)▪️limit price order 🔸TP ✅ executed during the week; UNG/NG = 3.12, NG<> values to be updated weekly depending on the coefficient. $NATGAS: $150 is the default stake size for Phase 1 scale-up, $100 positions are marked with “ (will eventually be replaced with $150 stakes), strategic 500 units positions are marked with * $UNG: stake size shown 🔸NG<6.72> / UNG 20.95 - TP 12.56 $300 stake with +$1,000 P&L 🔸NG<6.05>/ UNG 18.86 - TP 12.56 $200 stake with +$500 P&L 🔸NG<5.78>/ UNG 18.03 - TP 13.66 $500 stake with +$800 P&L ▪️NG 5.5 - RS (recovery sell of 1,500 units which allows closure of S1”/S2”/S3” at -$2,000 cumulative loss once price cools down to 5.35) ▪️NG 5.4 - S14* ✅🔸NG<5.33>/ UNG 16.63 - TP 13.86 $500 stake with +$500 P&L ✅▪️NG 5.2 -S13* ✅▪️NG 5 - S12* ▫️NG 4.8 - S11* 🔹NG 4.723 / UNG 14.73 - EOW LEVEL ▫️NG 4.7 - in lieu of skipped S4 (3.5) ▫️NG 4.66 - S10 ▪️NG 4.4 - NEW shut down S9 ▪️NG<4.3>/ UNG 13.5 - $500 stake ▪️NG 4.2 - NEW shut down S8 ▪️NG<4.1>/ UNG 12.8 - $500 stake ▪️NG 4.0 - NEW shut down S7” ▪️NG 3.85 - NEW shut down S6” ▪️NG 3.82 - B1 ▪️NG 3.68 - B2 🔸NG 3.65 - shutdown S5” ▪️NG 3.5 - B3 SKIPPED 3.5 - S4 🔸NG 3.35 - shutdown S3” ▪️NG 3.25 - B4 🔸NG 3.2 - shutdown S2” ▪️NG 3.1 - B5 🔸NG 3.05 - shutdown S1”

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NATGAS

UNG

US Natural Gas

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