๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฎ ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ฌ
While we wait for what is arguably the most important earnings report of the week from $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) itโs worth putting recent market moves into context.
Over the past week, roughly $700 billion was wiped from US equity markets, followed by a muted recovery yesterday. Headlines like that naturally create fear, yet in percentage terms it amounts to less than a 1% move. Context matters.
What matters more is the underlying structure. Markets are showing a pattern of lower highs and fading momentum, a typical sign of a maturing phase rather than the start of a fresh uptrend. Historically, mid-cycle years often turn into grinding, sideways periods with intermittent pullbacks before conditions improve later.
That broader backdrop also helps explain why crypto continues to struggle. Liquidity tends to leave higher-risk assets first, and that process still appears to be underway. $BTC sentiment peaked in mid-2025 and has weakened since, mirroring patterns seen in previous cycles. Unless equities regain sustained strength, crypto is unlikely to stabilise meaningfully.
One area behaving very differently is metals. Gold continues to hold firm while risk assets soften, a classic late-cycle rotation. Energy markets are also attempting to break higher, which historically tends to occur toward the later stages of economic expansions. These shifts suggest capital is becoming more defensive rather than risk-seeking.
For Bitcoin, participation is still declining. Exchange volumes have fallen back to levels last seen in early-cycle phases, and despite extreme fear readings, price hasnโt yet formed a convincing base. In prior cycles, durable lows tended to appear only after sentiment washed out and price stabilised over time, not immediately after sharp declines.
Putting this together, the current environment still looks consistent with a transitional phase: risk assets under pressure, defensive assets strengthening, and sentiment gradually deteriorating rather than capitulating outright. That combination typically precedes a more durable low later in the cycle rather than an immediate recovery.
With everyone focused on Nvidiaโs results later today, I believe the forward guidance they give will likely shape near-term market direction. As things stand, the portfolio is holding over 50% in cash, leaving us well positioned to deploy capital should markets pull-back further.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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Wed Aug 12 2026 12:45:38 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
