Moric Kocsa Pillmann @MoricPortfolio: "👀Solid week - we returned..."

Hungary

👀Solid week - we returned +2.2%, outperforming both benchmarks. The $SPX500 returned ~+0.9%, while the $NSDQ100 finished ~+0.8%. Headlines were split between renewed Iran tensions and the ongoing AI trade - markets mostly chose to focus on the latter. ⚠️𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: 🌍𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐝, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐈 --> The U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down, with Iran striking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. responding with strikes and revoked oil waivers --> $OIL prices spiked, but the equity reaction stayed contained - investors are treating this as headline risk rather than a shift in the broader outlook, unlike the correction seen in March 🚀𝐌𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐩𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐫𝐮𝐧 --> Per JPMorgan, memory operating margins hit 54% last quarter (vs. a prior peak of 34%) and are projected to reach 70% by year-end, driven by AI demand; The largest memory makers grew trailing 12-month net income by 450%, with stocks up over 500%+ over the same period - yet valuations remain below 10x $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR) $SKHY (SK hynix Inc ADR) $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) --> Not everyone's convinced this is a green light: Morningstar rates it fairly valued with limited upside, citing coming supply from new fabs (SK Hynix's Yongin facility alone could add ~60% capacity by 2030) that could erode today's pricing power 🧠𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: The AI/memory trade keeps printing exceptional numbers, but the wave of high-profile IPOs (SpaceX, SK Hynix, more expected) is exactly the kind of "insiders cashing out while outsiders buy in" signal that historically precedes a market top. Worth watching, not panicking over. 💭 Keep an eye on $ASML (ASML Holding NV) and $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) earnings next week - both are critical reads on whether AI capex is still accelerating or starting to plateau. Let me know your thoughts or if you have any questions in the comments! Best, Moric

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.