Ludwig Marx
Germany
3m
January 5–9, 2026 The week in one sentence Markets stopped debating narratives and started responding to who actually controls flows. What really mattered this week This week was not loud, but it was decisive. The dominant signal came from control, not growth. Energy was the clearest channel. Venezuela moved from being a frozen risk to an active variable in global oil flows. Not because fundamentals changed overnight, but because access, enforcement, and direction did. Tankers moved. Sanctions were selectively applied. Supply was redirected. Capital reacted accordingly. That matters more than any speech or headline. At the same time, the macro picture kept fracturing. Manufacturing stayed weak across the US and Europe. Services held up just enough to avoid panic, but not enough to restart a cycle. Inflation cooled, especially in Europe, but without triggering a broad re-rating of risk. Liquidity improved at the margin, not systemically. This is not a reflation setup. It is a slow release of pressure without momentum behind it. Against this backdrop, capital kept flowing aggressively into one place that does not care about short-term growth data: AI infrastructure. Chips, power generation, grids, data centers. These are no longer optional investments. They are capacity constraints. When Nvidia talks about production, when Big Tech locks in nuclear power for decades, this is not sentiment. This is forced capital expenditure. The scale is large, the timelines are long, and the spending is not cyclical in the usual sense. These forces reinforced each other. State control over commodities reduced uncertainty for some players and increased it for others. A slowing but not collapsing economy limited downside urgency. Structural capex absorbed excess capital. The result was not excitement. It was concentration. What this means for momentum Momentum narrowed further. Broad participation faded. Price action became more about positioning than conviction. Assets tied to controlled flows held up. Assets tied to smooth growth assumptions did not. Energy responded to direct intervention. AI responded to scarcity and scale. Everything else waited. This is not a market that rewards diversification for its own sake. It rewards alignment with where capital has no alternative. Momentum follows necessity. When spending is discretionary, it hesitates. When spending is forced, it persists. What I do with it I stay with what already works. Year to date, my portfolio is up 6.59%. The S&P 500, which I use as my benchmark, is up 1.76%. I don’t change that by getting clever. I stay invested where capital keeps committing regardless of macro data. I stay patient where price moves with flow, not confirmation. I reduce exposure where upside depends on growth normalizing. I accept inactivity where signals conflict. One thought to take into next week Uncertainty matters less than who gets to decide.
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