Dmitrii Ishutin
United Kingdom
10m
End of month update With the war between Israel and Iran defused, the market is resuming its move to all-time highs and even higher. We're entering a seasonally strong period for the Nasdaq index. All eyes are once again focused on the macroeconomic picture, preparations for the reporting season and the approaching end of the tariff moratorium. Macro In addition to solid data on the labour market, inflation, GDP growth, the Fed's softening rhetoric adds to the optimism. The market is trading on the expectation of a resumption of the easing cycle of the FOMC if inflation data maintains current momentum. The probability of a rate cut in September rose to 73% from 65%; the probability of a cut in July rose from 16% to 21%. However, some Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the strength of the labor market gives the central bank the leeway to hold off on cutting interest rates until they can get a better sense of the impact Trump's tariffs will have on inflation. Overall, bond yields are declining, as the 10-year yield has pierced its 200-day MA to the downside. TMF is finally showing signs of recovery, with USD 40 being the next mark to break. Tariffs Latest news points to possible deals with the EU, India, Japan and Vietnam by 9 July, when the tariff moratorium expires. There is also discussion of extending the deadline for countries negotiating in good faith. A return to the original rhetoric would be negative for risk assets, in which case it is likely to reignite support for markets. Wizz was a disappointment this month as shares tanked 28% due to upsetting earnings update, triggering my stop losses. I opened and subsequently increased an unlevered position in NTLA. Technical momentum (a double bottom) suggest opportunities to the upside with reversal toward 200-day MA circa USD 12. Fundamentally, Eli Lilly’s recent announcement to acquire Verve Therapeutics, a Boston-based clinical-stage company developing genetic medicines for cardiovascular disease, has put the spotlight on other promising companies developing gene therapies. Intellia has been lagging behind its competitor CRISPR Therapeutics, but has a few late-stage drugs in development. It has also sadly cut its workforce by nearly a third to focus on key developments, which however should reflect positively in its bottom line.
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