Fabio De Oliveira Vianna
Portugal
1mo
📉 Market Update: First >2% Drawdown in Months — Why We Are Buying It has been a long time since we’ve seen a single-day drop exceeding 2%. Today, the market finally delivered that volatility. While red screens can feel uncomfortable, this is exactly why a disciplined plan and a strategic cash reserve are your greatest advantages. ✅ Today was a broad "risk-off" session. We saw a heavy sell-off in Tech and Growth sectors, fueled by extreme volatility in precious metals (Gold and Silver) and a deleveraging event in Crypto. 🔍 Technical Breakdown: What Drove the Move? 🧪 Novo Nordisk (NVO) | Down 10-13% The Catalyst: A disappointing 2026 guidance. Despite high demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, NVO forecasts a 5% to 13% drop in operating profit and adjusted sales for 2026. The Reason: Net pricing is being squeezed by U.S. price negotiations and lower Medicaid coverage, alongside the loss of patent exclusivity in several international markets. 💊 Pfizer (PFE) | Down 4-5% The Catalyst: Mixed Q4 earnings (EPS of $0.66) and underwhelming Phase 2 data for their new oral/monthly obesity drug. The Reason: The market viewed the weight-loss data as "mixed" and slightly inferior to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. With a 2026 EPS guidance lower than 2025 ($2.80–$3.00 vs. $3.22), investors are skeptical about Pfizer's ability to grab market share in the GLP-1 space. 📊 eToro (ETOR) & Duolingo (DUOL) The Catalyst: A classic "valuation reset." During >2% down days, high-multiple growth stocks and fintech names are used as sources of liquidity. Market Behavior: Strong companies often get "thrown out with the bathwater" during deleveraging events. 🪙 Crypto: BTC & ETH The Catalyst: Correlation + Liquidation. Following the Nasdaq’s lead, BTC triggered a liquidation cascade of leveraged long positions, creating a fast and sharp dip. 🛒 Our Action: Disciplined Buying (Risk Controlled) This is precisely why we kept cash on the sidelines. Instead of panic-selling, we executed our plan and added selectively at significant discounts: ✅ Bought the dips in: NVO, ETOR, DUOL, MSTR, and BTC. No fear-based decisions—just disciplined entries into high-conviction names when the market provides a better "margin of safety." 💵 Cash Position: We are still holding ~15% in cash. This gives us the flexibility to average in if volatility persists or protect the portfolio if macro conditions worsen. 🛡️ 🧠 Mindset: Opportunity > Fear Volatility isn't a signal to panic; it’s a price-discovery process. We remain focused on position sizing, risk management, and long-term conviction. 🎯 🙏 Thank you to all my Copiers Red days are where the strongest portfolios are built. Thank you for your continued trust. We will keep navigating this market with patience and discipline. NSDQ100 SPX500 ETH [this post was moderated by @eToro_Moderation for excessive tagging]
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