Marek Mackanic @MarekMackanic: "Silver and portfolio update. It looks..."

Slovakia

Silver and portfolio update. It looks like silver is trading in the falling wedge pattern as highlighted in the chart, a structure that often precedes a bullish reversal once a confirmed breakout occurs. The silver rapid surge earlier this year in the cycle proved unsustainable, leading to a sharp mean‑reversion move that flushed out short‑term speculators. “We dipped below the 200‑day EMA for a short period of time and then moved back above it. The last time silver fell under the 200‑day EMA was in April 2025, and that move was followed by a multi‑month green streak. Should we see the same price action repeating again this year? It is possible but nothing is guaranteed. The market looks very choppy right now and there is still risk, like always, of the further downside. The fake breakout to either direction of this falling wedge pattern would cancel this structure. The recent decline also served as a flush out of the speculative flows and allowed momentum indicators to reset. On the monthly timeframe, silver remains in a strong structural uptrend, but the chart is still somewhat overstretched. This suggests that the market may require a prolonged consolidation phase potentially into May~June window before a continuation of the long term bull market. The long‑term bull market remains intact, supported by strong industrial demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and a favorable macro environment for precious metals. Importantly, silver miners corrected in sync with the metal, but many of them now appear in my view undervalued relative to their long‑term cash flow potential. If silver resumes its upward trend, miners could offer significant upside leverage. I remain structurally bullish on silver and gold at the moment and am keeping my positions in precious‑metal miners unchanged. Interestingly - commodity indexes like the one we hold $DJP (iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN) is moving higher and I posted about the developed cup and handle pattern two months ago in this post -> etoro.tw/4meQd88 Right now the move is driven mainly by the oil prices, but it is possible we will see prices of $OIL $Silver $GOLD and other commodities moving up simultaneously. Today I added more funds and will be looking for buying opportunities this month. As I recently posted I bought more shares of $VALE (Vale SA-ADR) and will add one or two more positions in April. Most of the markets will be closed on Good Friday as we are heading into Easter Holiday period and will reopen on Monday next week. PS Happe Easter and be patient.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.