Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚..."

Italy

𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠. Let’s take a look together at the main economic events that have shaped market trends over the past week. A combination of domestic factors, macroeconomic data, political decisions, and corporate earnings is shaping investor sentiment. Despite uncertainties surrounding Trump’s new protectionist policies, markets are showing signs of a potential rebound. 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙜𝙜𝙡𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙌𝟭 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% year-over-year, marking the first decline since 2022. This result was significantly impacted by an exceptional surge in imports ahead of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This figure is likely to be revised soon due to a misinterpretation of the impact of imports. In reality, a delay in inventory data and an unclear comment from the BEA caused confusion. Upcoming revisions will likely adjust the estimate. 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙢𝙚𝙧 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜: 𝙗𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚 Consumer spending rose by 1.8%, the weakest level since 2023 but still above forecasts. Demand was driven by services and nondurable goods. However, consumer confidence is falling, with low-income households hit hard by persistent inflation. 𝙋𝙧𝙚-𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙛 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙮 𝙗𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙙𝙪𝙥 Ahead of the April 9 tariff implementation, businesses and consumers rushed to import and stockpile goods, triggering a 41.3% spike in imports — the strongest growth in five years. This boosted inventories (adding 2.25 percentage points to GDP), but the effect is temporary. Currently, new ocean freight bookings from China have plunged 45%, and voyage cancellations have surged to 40%, signaling a sudden slowdown in trade. 𝙇𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩: 𝙝𝙤𝙡𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙪𝙥, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙘𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨 The labor market showed some resilience: 177,000 jobs were added in April, far exceeding expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. However, downward revisions to previous months’ data revealed a net decline. Manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs, and the federal government cut 9,000 positions, bringing the year-to-date total to -26,000. This suggests a robust but vulnerable labor market. 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙪𝙩𝙥𝙪𝙩: 𝙨𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙥𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 The manufacturing sector is in a slowdown phase but not in crisis. The key index dropped to 48.7, marking the second consecutive month of contraction, though better than expected. New orders rose to 47.2, still below the expansion threshold but improving. Input prices remain high but below estimates, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙚 Despite signs of deceleration, the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to cut interest rates. Market expectations for monetary easing have moderated, with the probability of a rate cut in June falling below 50%. Still, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, buoyed by the strong jobs data, recovering previous losses. 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 Rating agency S&P downgraded global growth forecasts due to the tariffs. For 2025, world growth is now expected at 2.7% (-0.3%), with further downward revisions for 2026 and 2027. Warren Buffett also criticized Trump’s protectionist policies, calling tariffs a strategic mistake. He emphasized that trade should not be used as a weapon and that global prosperity also strengthens the United States. Tariffs, he warned, foster hostility and economic instability, undermining long-term growth. 𝘼𝙥𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙢𝙖𝙯𝙤𝙣 𝙗𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙙 𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 Apple and Amazon posted strong results from January to March. However, Apple estimates tariffs will cost $900 million in the current quarter and has decided to shift production to India and Vietnam. The effectiveness of this move remains uncertain due to local capacity constraints and the potential for future tariffs against those countries as well. Amazon reported 9% quarterly revenue growth but issued cautious guidance. Sixty percent of its e-commerce is managed by third-party sellers, many of whom are affected by tariffs. The company acknowledged that stockpiling in some categories could signal preparation for future tariff impacts. 𝘽𝙞𝙜 𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙪𝙥, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝 Microsoft and Meta also reported solid results, with Microsoft beating expectations thanks to the performance of its Azure cloud business. However, the future impact of Trump’s trade policies remains a major question mark for all major tech companies. Thank you for your support. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MSFT (Microsoft) $GOOG (Alphabet) $AAPL (Apple)

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