Alberto Poli
๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™–๐™ง ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™ž๐™š๐™ง๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™›๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ง๐™จ, ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ก๐™˜๐™ค๐™ข๐™š ๐™—๐™–๐™˜๐™ . Letโ€™s take a look together at the main economic events that have shaped market trends over the past week. A combination of domestic factors, macroeconomic data, political decisions, and corporate earnings is shaping investor sentiment. Despite uncertainties surrounding Trumpโ€™s new protectionist policies, markets are showing signs of a potential rebound. ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ช๐™œ๐™œ๐™ก๐™š๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™Œ๐Ÿญ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% year-over-year, marking the first decline since 2022. This result was significantly impacted by an exceptional surge in imports ahead of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This figure is likely to be revised soon due to a misinterpretation of the impact of imports. In reality, a delay in inventory data and an unclear comment from the BEA caused confusion. Upcoming revisions will likely adjust the estimate. ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ข๐™š๐™ง ๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ: ๐™—๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง ๐™ฉ๐™๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™š๐™ญ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š Consumer spending rose by 1.8%, the weakest level since 2023 but still above forecasts. Demand was driven by services and nondurable goods. However, consumer confidence is falling, with low-income households hit hard by persistent inflation. ๐™‹๐™ง๐™š-๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ง๐™ž๐™›๐™› ๐™š๐™›๐™›๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ซ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฎ ๐™—๐™ช๐™ž๐™ก๐™™๐™ช๐™ฅ Ahead of the April 9 tariff implementation, businesses and consumers rushed to import and stockpile goods, triggering a 41.3% spike in imports โ€” the strongest growth in five years. This boosted inventories (adding 2.25 percentage points to GDP), but the effect is temporary. Currently, new ocean freight bookings from China have plunged 45%, and voyage cancellations have surged to 40%, signaling a sudden slowdown in trade. ๐™‡๐™–๐™—๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ข๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ: ๐™๐™ค๐™ก๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ช๐™ฅ, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™จ๐™๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™˜๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ ๐™จ The labor market showed some resilience: 177,000 jobs were added in April, far exceeding expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. However, downward revisions to previous monthsโ€™ data revealed a net decline. Manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs, and the federal government cut 9,000 positions, bringing the year-to-date total to -26,000. This suggests a robust but vulnerable labor market. ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ช๐™›๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ค๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ฅ๐™ช๐™ฉ: ๐™จ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ฉ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™–๐™ฅ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ The manufacturing sector is in a slowdown phase but not in crisis. The key index dropped to 48.7, marking the second consecutive month of contraction, though better than expected. New orders rose to 47.2, still below the expansion threshold but improving. Input prices remain high but below estimates, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™๐™š๐™™ ๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™š Despite signs of deceleration, the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to cut interest rates. Market expectations for monetary easing have moderated, with the probability of a rate cut in June falling below 50%. Still, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, buoyed by the strong jobs data, recovering previous losses. ๐™‚๐™ก๐™ค๐™—๐™–๐™ก ๐™š๐™›๐™›๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™™๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฃ๐™ฌ๐™–๐™ง๐™™ ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™š๐™˜๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ Rating agency S&P downgraded global growth forecasts due to the tariffs. For 2025, world growth is now expected at 2.7% (-0.3%), with further downward revisions for 2026 and 2027. Warren Buffett also criticized Trumpโ€™s protectionist policies, calling tariffs a strategic mistake. He emphasized that trade should not be used as a weapon and that global prosperity also strengthens the United States. Tariffs, he warned, foster hostility and economic instability, undermining long-term growth. ๐˜ผ๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ก๐™š ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐˜ผ๐™ข๐™–๐™ฏ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™—๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™š๐™ฃ ๐™ง๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ง๐™™ ๐™š๐™–๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ฎ Apple and Amazon posted strong results from January to March. However, Apple estimates tariffs will cost $900 million in the current quarter and has decided to shift production to India and Vietnam. The effectiveness of this move remains uncertain due to local capacity constraints and the potential for future tariffs against those countries as well. Amazon reported 9% quarterly revenue growth but issued cautious guidance. Sixty percent of its e-commerce is managed by third-party sellers, many of whom are affected by tariffs. The company acknowledged that stockpiling in some categories could signal preparation for future tariff impacts. ๐˜ฝ๐™ž๐™œ ๐™๐™š๐™˜๐™๐™จ ๐™๐™ค๐™ก๐™™ ๐™ช๐™ฅ, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ฎ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™๐™ž๐™œ๐™ Microsoft and Meta also reported solid results, with Microsoft beating expectations thanks to the performance of its Azure cloud business. However, the future impact of Trumpโ€™s trade policies remains a major question mark for all major tech companies. Thank you for your support. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MSFT (Microsoft) $GOOG (Alphabet) $AAPL (Apple)
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